Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview March 8-10

Serie A Match Betting Preview for March 8-10

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his March 8-10 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Napoli vs Torino and Fiorentina vs Roma. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Napoli vs Torino | Friday March 8 | 2:45pm ET

Napoli -115 | Draw +235 | Torino +320
Asian Handicap: Napoli -0.5 | Total: 2.25

Just like that, Napoli is back! Two straight wins including a blowout of Sassuolo midweek and they followed that up with a solid win over Juventus on the weekend.

The thing about Napoli this season is they haven’t been as bad as their record indicates, at least I don’t think so. They rank 3rd in the league in xP (expected points), the difference this year has just been their inability to win against the big clubs.

Before beating Juventus, Napoli literally had one quality win this year which came against Atalanta. Otherwise, they failed to beat Barcelona, Milan (twice), Lazio (twice), Inter (twice), Roma, Juventus in the first meeting, Real Madrid (twice) and Bologna.

Luckily for them, I wouldn’t consider Torino to be on the level of those clubs, though Napoli did lose to Torino in the reverse fixture back in the beginning of January.

I’m also hopeful that momentum will carryover for Napoli here after scoring eight goals in their last two games as they had scored a total of just five goals over their previous seven matches where they averaged only 0.92 xG per match.

The last two matches Napoli created an average of 2.29 xG. Torino has been playing pretty well and they are a great team to bet on at home, but on the road they have struggled with just three wins this year, and losses against all the big boys, Milan, Lazio, Juventus, Bologna and Roma. They also haven’t won in Naples since 2009.

I don’t think it will be easy, or in blowout fashion, but I think Napoli continue their surge and find a way to win.

Serie A Prediction: Napoli ML or -0.5 (-110)

Bologna vs Inter | Saturday March 9 | 12:00pm ET

Bologna +245 | Draw +215 | Inter +105
Asian Handicap: Inter -0.25 | Total: 2.25

Gulp. Stepping in front of the Inter train is a scary proposition, but if there is ever a time to do it, this might be it.

First, this is a tough spot for Inter who travel to Madrid to face Atletico in Leg 2 of their Champions League tie and that is certainly the priority as Inter have all but wrapped up the Scudetto at this point.

Simone Inzaghi has taken the approach to continue to put out the best lineup each week as the winning mentality is contagious and it’s hard to rotate lineups often and keep momentum going, so I do expect a solid lineup from them here.

However, I’m not sure how hard they will push for a win near the end of the match if this is tied late which of course would help us on the Double Chance bet.

Aside from that, it’s hard to want to bet against Inter, but the next hottest team in the league is Bologna who have now won six straight matches including on the road at Atalanta last week.

They have played their way into the Top-4 and earning a Champions League spot for next season would be huge for this club. They will certainly scrap for anything they can get against Inter here.

Even though they have won them all, Inter’s last four away matches haven’t been the best defensive performances from the club. I say that as they kept clean sheets in two of them, but they allowed an average of 1.23 xGA per match and were outshot against both Fiorentina and Lecce of all teams.

Against the two quality clubs they played, Roma and Fiorentina, again they won both, but they averaged only 0.93 xG while allowing 1.45 xGA. Certainly not dominating performances that make this match a layup.

Bologna is rolling, they haven’t lost at home since their opener, a run of 12 straight unbeaten. They also played Inter very tough in the reverse fixture, a 2-2 draw which was very evenly played according to xG. They can grab a point here.

Serie A Prediction: Bologna +0.5 (Double Chance) (-135)

Fiorentina vs Roma | Sunday March 10 | 3:45pm ET

Fiorentina +140 | Draw +215 | Roma +185
Asian Handicap: Fiorentina -0.25 | Total: 2.5

Before I break this down, I want to say I would normally avoid Roma in this spot coming in on short rest after playing in the Europa League, but Fiorentina is also playing Thursday in the Conference League so both teams are dealing with the same scheduling.

Roma continues to ride the new manager bounce as De Rossi has this team playing well and pushing for goals. Granted, we are still in the situation where you can look at their schedule and say, well, they have had it very easy thus far, and that is true.

Aside from playing Inter, which uncoincidentally was their only loss, Roma has beaten Verona, Salernitana, Cagliari, Frosinone, Torino and Monza.

The latter two are at least mid-tier clubs but not one of those opponents has double-digits wins this season. They also played out two draws against a good Dutch side, Feyenoord, in the Europa League.

Though Fiorentina does have 12 wins, they are about the same caliber of team as Torino, and perfect evidence of that is the 0-0 draw Fiorentina just played against Torino last weekend. Both of those clubs are not-high scoring teams and generally play out low-scoring matches, although Roma did beat Torino 3-2, but I don’t see that many goals coming here.

Over Fiorentina’s last 16 matches, they have been held to one goal or less in 12 of them with three of their multi-goal performances coming against weak sides Udinese, Lecce, Frosinone.

Generally, I like to get a head start in what should be a low-scoring match and that would be the case with Roma +0.25 here. Remember, Roma doesn’t have to win this match, they just have to avoid losing to cash our ticket which I believe they will do.

Serie A Prediction: Roma +0.25 (-125)