Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview November 10-12

Serie A Match Betting Preview for November 10-12

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his November 10-12 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Genoa vs Verona and Juventus vs Cagliari. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Genoa vs Verona | Friday November 10 | 3:45pm ET

Genoa -110 | Draw +215 | Verona +320
Asian Handicap: Genoa -0.5 | Total: 2.0

This reminds me of the spot we took Genoa two weeks ago, at home versus Salernitana. Verona, statistically speaking, is a very similar team to Salernitana, and you could argue even slightly worse.

Verona is dead last in the league in creating chances averaging only 0.62 xG per match, while Salernitana is just ahead of them at 0.73. Genoa isn’t too much better averaging only 0.76 per match, but where these teams are different, is with their defense.

Verona is allowing the 4th most xGA per match at a whopping 1.72, but that is where Genoa separate themselves as they are allowing much less at just 1.12 per match, which ranks a very respectable 7th in the league.

Genoa has had a very difficult schedule at home, we discussed that prior to their win over Salernitana which was their first in which they were favorites.

They have two losses against Fiorentina and Milan, but also have a win over Roma and a draw vs Napoli. They certainly held their own with a tough schedule. Even more impressive, is that they only allowed 1.08 xGA per match versus those four opponents.

Verona opened the season with a road win at Empoli, followed by a home win over Roma. However, since then, they are winless in their last nine matches, scoring a total of just four goals while being held off the sheet in five matches.

Only one time this season have they created more than 1.0 xG. I don’t see Verona getting many chances once again and if Genoa can find just one goal, that may be more than enough to win this.

Serie A Prediction: Genoa Moneyline -110 DraftKings

Shop both the moneyline and the -0.5 handicap as they are the same bet.

Juventus vs Cagliari | Saturday November 11 | 12:00pm ET

Juventus -290 | Draw +380 | Udinese +650
Asian Handicap: Juventus -1.5 | Total: 2.75

I’m beginning to sound like a broken record with Juventus as it seems every week I bring up the fact that they are reminding me of the team we saw this time last season when they went on an 8-match clean sheet run.

Last weekend they went to Fiorentina and won 1-0 which makes it now six straight clean sheets for Juventus. Offensively, they haven’t been scoring many though, as they have four 1-0 wins, a 2-0 win and a 0-0 draw in those six matches, but clearly, they haven’t needed to.

Cagliari is suddenly on a winning streak! After starting the season with nine straight winless matches, they dug themselves a 0-3 hole vs Frosinone, pulled out a ridiculous comeback to win 4-3, and then didn’t immediately experience a letdown in their next match by beating Genoa 2-1.

Both of those matches came at home though, and on the road, it has been a much different story as they are winless in five matches, scoring a total of just three goals while conceding at least two in four of five.

Juve is now 2nd in xGA per match, allowing only 0.77 while they rank 3rd offensively, creating 1.86 for a +1.08 xG differential which rises to +1.79 at home while Cagliari has a -0.82 differential on the road. The question isn’t will Juventus win this match, it’s will Cagliari score?

Cagliari has scored eight goals over their last three matches but took great advantage of a very easy schedule facing Salernitana, Frosinone and Genoa in succession. Finding space against Juventus will be a much tougher challenge.

Serie A Prediction: Juventus Win to Nil +105 FanDuel

This is a Same Game Parlay at DK (Juventus to Win + Both Teams to Score NO). Make the parlay yourself at FanDuel.

Napoli vs Empoli | Sunday November 12 | 6:30pm ET

Napoli -500 | Draw +550 | Empoli +900
Asian Handicap: Napoli -1.75 | Total: 3.25

First, I’m not worried about Napoli coming off their Champions League match on Wednesday. Empoli is not a good side, and the Azzurri should have no problem dispatching them. I simply don’t see Empoli getting many, if any, good looks in this match.

Empoli pulled off the miracle win a few weeks ago winning 2-0 on the road at Fiorentina, but reality has set back in for them now with back-to-back losses against Atalanta and Frosinone, though they did at least score a goal against the latter. However, that is just the third match they have found the back of the net this season as they have been held scoreless in eight matches.

I mentioned the Fiorentina win, but against the true top teams in the league here are the results for Empoli this season:
0-2 vs Juventus
0-7 at Roma
0-1 vs Inter
0-3 vs Atalanta

They obviously didn’t score a goal in those four matches and three of those came at home.

Napoli hasn’t had as good of a defensive season compared to last year, at least not on the surface, though xG suggests it’s not too much different as they are allowing 0.94 xGA per match this season compared to ending last year with a 0.84 average. But the real key is what they have done against weak competition:
2-0 at Salernitana
4-0 at Lecce
0-0 at Bologna
2-0 vs Sassuolo
1-0 at Union Berlin (UCL)

I don’t think Empoli will get many good looks in this match.

Serie A Prediction: Parlay Napoli Win to Nil +100 FanDuel

This is a Same Game Parlay at DK (Juventus to Win + Both Teams to Score NO). Make the parlay yourself at FanDuel