Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview November 25-26

Serie A Match Betting Preview for November 25-26

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his November 25-26 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Salernitana vs Lazio and Cagliari vs Monza. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Salernitana vs Lazio | Saturday November 25 | 9:00am ET

Salernitana +340 | Draw +255 | Lazio -135
Asian Handicap: Lazio -0.75 | Total: 2.5

By now you know I’m not a big fan of Lazio but I think this is a good spot to back them. I would normally be concerned about a team heading into a Champions League week, but both coming off the international break calms my worries as its disruptive to both sides.

To put it simply, Salernitana is not good, and they still aren’t in the win column this season. They have a -1.05 xG differential per match which doesn’t improve much at home to -0.74. They have been held scoreless in seven of 12 matches, including three of six at home.

Against the quality sides they have faced at home, Salernitana lost 0-2 vs Napoli, 0-4 vs Inter and 0-3 vs Torino. That is obviously a common theme and I think there is a good chance we see the same here as Lazio can play solid defense against teams in the bottom-half of the table.

Over their last four Serie A matches, Lazio has allowed just 0.43 xGA per match which does include two solid teams in Roma and Fiorentina.

They have had a couple poor defensive performances against Milan and Juventus allowing five goals on 5.36 xGA, but aside from those two matches, Lazio has allowed an average of only 0.82 xGA in their other ten matches.

Add Lazio’s prowess defensively, especially against low quality sides, plus Salernitana’s inept offense, particularly against top half of the table teams, and that equals a strong chance we see a straight forward Lazio win on Friday.

Serie A Prediction: Lazio Moneyline -135 DraftKings

Shop both the moneyline and the -0.5 handicap as they are the same bet.

Cagliari vs Monza | Sunday November 26 | 6:30am ET

Cagliari +180 | Draw +215 | Monza +145
Asian Handicap: Pick’em | Total: 2.5

Cagliari started the season going winless in their first nine matches of the season as they struggled to score, netting a total of just five goals while being held scoreless in five matches.

Meanwhile, their defense was leaking badly allowing a total of 18 goals and at least two goals in seven of those nine.
Then came the match with Frosinone. After falling behind 0-3, everything looked as if it was going to continue for Cagliari before a remarkable comeback, including two goals in stoppage time, saw them pull of the comeback and win 4-3. They nearly doubled their offensive output in that one match.

Impressively, they were able to follow that up with another win over Genoa before falling back to earth in a 1-2 loss to Juventus, though xG showed a 0.5-3.0 tally.

Scoring eight goals in a three-match span against Salernitana, Frosinone and Genoa is one thing, but playing against strong defenses is another animal. You might not associate Monza as a strong defense, but their results suggest otherwise.

After conceding five goals in their first three matches this season, Monza has allowed just six goals in nine matches since and not more than one goal in any of those matches. Of course, the schedule has been rather easy, but where do you think Cagliari falls in that “easy” category?

So, even though Cagliari’s offense did uptick, for a bit, their defense has not shown any signs of improvement and my first rule when betting sides, never trust a bad defense.

The number is moving towards Monza and they likely will be -0.25 favorites by kickoff, so getting them at a pick’em, or Draw no Bet, price is worth a shot.

Serie A Prediction: Monza Draw No Bet -125 DraftKings

Shop both the Asian Handicap of +0 or the Draw No Bet option, both are the same bet.

Juventus vs Inter | Sunday November 27 | 2:45pm ET

Juventus +220 | Draw +215 | Inter +120
Asian Handicap: Inter -0.25 | Total: 2.25

Inter travel to Portugal just three days after this match to face Benfica in the Champions League which would normally mean this is a spot to fade them as road favorites, but they have already qualified for the knockout stage with two matches remaining, so I expect a strong starting XI and full focus here.

For Juventus, I’ve mentioned it anytime I have written about them, being banned from UEFA competitions this season has clearly helped their performances in Serie A.

These have been the two best teams in Serie A as they have begun to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. Juventus, who sit in 2nd place, are currently six points up on 3rd place. xG identifies these as the best two teams in the league as well, though not by as big of a margin.

Both teams have strong offenses, especially Inter who have scored a league-high 29 goals, but it’s their defenses that have these two sitting atop the table.

Inter has allowed only six goals in 12 Serie A matches while Juventus has allowed seven, as both are the only teams that have allowed less than ten. Similarly, both teams allow 0.75 xGA per match or less and only 2.7 shots on target, which both rank as the Top-2 in the league.

Then of course we have the history of this rivalry, which has produced plenty of low-scoring affairs. Over their last eight meetings, only one match has finished Over this total, which was the Coppa Italia Final two seasons ago. Going back even further, only five of the last 20 matches have finished with three goals or more.

Coming out of the international break is always a little difficult to predict, but I expect both defenses to shine as we have seen all season and, in most instances, when these sides meet.

Serie A Prediction: Parlay Under 2.25 Goals -115 DraftKings