Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview November 3-6

Serie A Match Betting Preview for November 3-6

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his November 3-6 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Bologna vs Lazio and AC Milan vs Udinese. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Bologna vs Lazio | Friday 11/3 | 3:45pm ET

Bologna +160 | Draw +225 | Lazio +160
Asian Handicap: Pick’em +0 | Total: 2.5

These two teams are statistically very similar to one another and appear to be evenly matched. Bologna averages 11.4 shots per match, Lazio averages 11.6. Bologna allows 11.8, Lazio allows 13.4. Bologna generates 1.36 xG, Lazio creates 1.42.

The biggest differences thus far are both in Bologna’s favor. Bologna average 5.0 shots on target per match, good for fourth most in Serie A.

Defensively, according to xG, they are superior as well allowing only 1.0 xGA per match, which ranks as the 4th fewest behind only Inter, Juve and Atalanta, while Lazio allow 1.26 including 1.69 on the road.

Finally, Bologna own a +0.62 xG differential at home, while Lazio come in at -0.21 away. Bologna lost their opening match of the season, 0-2 vs AC Milan, but are unbeaten in their nine matches since.

They only have three wins though as they have settled for six draws during their current run, but that includes drawing with Juventus, Napoli and Inter. This team is more than capable of grabbing a result vs Lazio.

This match could ultimately end in yet another draw, but all three of Bologna’s wins did come at home while also settling for a 0-0 draw with Napoli. Lazio has three wins in all competitions away from home, but they also have four losses.

Finally, and most importantly, Lazio has a huge match against Feyenoord in the Champions League just four days after this match, whom they just lost to 1-3 less than two weeks ago.

They currently sit 3rd in their group and another loss to Feyenoord will make it very difficult for Lazio to finish Top-2. They need to put all their eggs in that basket against Feyenoord and that could open the door for Bologna to grab a win here.

Serie A Prediction: Bologna Draw No Bet (+0) -110 DraftKings

Shop both the Draw No Bet Prop and Asian Handicap of +0 as both are the same bet.

AC Milan vs Udinese | Saturday 11/4 | 3:45pm ET

AC Milan -240 | Draw +340 | Udinese +550
Asian Handicap: AC Milan -1.25 | Total: 2.75

I like AC Milan to win the match, just don’t necessarily trust laying the -1.25 handicap. Udinese is still winless on the season, but they have managed seven draws with just three losses.

Of course, all seven draws came against weak competition while their three losses were all against the big boys: 0-3 vs Juventus, 0-2 vs Fiorentina, and 1-4 at Napoli

Milan is obviously in the same company, and you would have to expect a similar result. Udinese struggle to score, they have netted just six goals in ten matches and were held to a clean sheet in five of ten.

Milan has struggled on defense, allowing six goals over their last three matches as they went winless against Juventus, PSG and Napoli.

They also failed to beat Dortmund, Newcastle, and Inter. But in their other seven matches, mostly against weak teams, Milan allowed just three goals on an average of only 0.65 xGA per match.

I don’t expect Udinese to get many chances in this match.

Serie A Prediction: Parlay AC Milan Moneyline (-210) with Roma Moneyline (-175) BetMGM +130

Roma vs Lecce | Sunday 11/5 | 12:00pm ET

Roma -185 | Draw +280 | Lecce +475
Asian Handicap: Roma -1.0 | Total: 2.25

Another one I don’t have to explain too much. Prior to their 0-1 loss to Inter last weekend, Roma had won five straight matches, allowing a total of one goal in those five as they had three wins in Serie A and two more in the Europa League.

Even with that loss to Inter, they have still allowed just two goals over their last six matches. It was certainly a nice rebound after allowing four goals to Genoa back at the end of September.

Lecce started off the season unbeaten in five matches with three wins and two draws and were a perfect 5-0 ATS. That included a win over Lazio and a draw with Fiorentina.

However, the numbers behind the scenes were suggesting a regression was coming and that is certainly what has happened.

They scored eight goals in their first five matches but have since scored just two goals over their last five as the schedule has intensified having faced Napoli and Juventus during their recent stretch.

They averaged only 0.34 xG in those two matches and of course didn’t score in either. I can’t imagine they will get many more looks vs Roma with how well their defense had been playing, allowing just 0.73 xGA over their five matches prior to last weekend’s loss to Inter.

Serie A Prediction: Parlay AC Milan Moneyline (-210) with Roma Moneyline (-175) BetMGM +130

Frosinone vs Empoli | Monday 11/6 | 12:30pm ET

Frosinone +105 | Draw +245 | Empoli +225
Asian Handicap: Frosinone -0.25 | Total: 2.5

I was so excited about last week’s pick on Frosinone +0.25 at Cagliari. They jumped out to a three-goal lead and at that point, I was already counting our money, which of course, was a mistake.

Cagliari scored four goals going away, including two in stoppage time, and considering they had only scored a total of five goals all season prior to that, the comeback was certainly unexpected, to say the least. I’m not bitter at all! But I digress…

That just makes me want to jump on them again here. Even though they lost, I believe I was right on my reasoning and for many of those same reasons, I like them to beat one of, if not the, worst team in the league.

Frosinone lost their home opener vs Napoli, but since have three wins and a draw at home beating Atalanta, Sassuolo and Verona, while drawing with Fiorentina. They can certainly beat Empoli, right

Empoli surprised everyone two weeks ago with their Monday night win over Fiorentina, 2-0 on the road! Of course, reality set back in last weekend in a lackluster performance against Atalanta, as they were beaten soundly 0-3 at home.

They have now failed to score in eight of ten matches this season. While Frosinone certainly doesn’t have the best defense, considering they have kept just one clean sheet this season, their offense has been solid, scoring 16 goals, including ten at home in five matches.

They can keep Empoli off the board here and even if they allow one, I like Frosinone to at least score two to grab a win.

Serie A Prediction: Frosinone Moneyline +110 FanDuel