Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview October 21-22

Serie A Match Betting Preview for October 21-22

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his October 21-22 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Verona vs Napoli and AC Milan vs Juventus. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Verona vs Napoli | Saturday October 21 | 9:00am ET

Verona +500 | Draw +300 | Napoli -210
Asian Handicap: Napoli -1.0 | Total: 2.5

Much of this play is based around the idea that Verona is unlikely to get on the board in this match. Thus far, they have been held to nil in half of their eight matches including against AC Milan and Atalanta.

At home, Verona has been held scoreless in two of three matches, against Atalanta and Bologna, but even though their offense has been struggling, they have been solid defensively, allowing a total of just two goals in those three matches which also included Roma.

On the season they are creating a ridiculously low 0.57 xG per match which ranks dead last by a pretty wide margin over Salernitana.

Defensively though, they haven’t been horrible allowing 1.40 xGA which ranks right in the middle of the table.

Of course, we know how strong Napoli is, but they stumbled into the international break with back-to-back losses vs Real Madrid in the Champions League and Fiorentina, allowing three goals to both. Priority for Napoli will be of course to get a win, but also to produce a much better effort defensively.

The Azzurri did keep back-to-back clean sheets on the road in their last two away matches at two other weak offensive teams in Lecce and Bologna, allowing an average of just 0.40 xGA and I think they should produce a similar defensive showing here.

Ultimately, Napoli should have the quality to produce a win, but I don’t think it will come easy. Verona has done a good job in recent years of giving them trouble as they have held Napoli to one goal or less in four of the last six meetings which is part of the reason six of the last nine have finished Under this total.

With Champions League on deck next week, if Napoli do hold a 1-0 or 2-0 lead late, I don’t expect them to push the issue, but rather just look to see the match out and save some energy for a trip to Germany.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals +100 DraftKings

Torino vs Inter | Saturday October 21 | 12:00pm ET

Torino +330 | Draw +255 | Inter -135
Asian Handicap: Inter -0.75 | Total: 2.5

It’s always wise to avoid a team before an upcoming Champions League match, but this is an important match for Inter to win.

Aside from their upcoming UCL match hosting Salzburg, Inter then play Roma and Atalanta in subsequent matches before facing Salzburg again in the reverse fixture. Torino is certainly not an easy win, but this is their weakest competition in the foreseeable future.

Inter has the best defense in the league in both terms of actual goals allowed and xGA. They have allowed just five goals in Serie A this season, including none on the road in three matches, and an average of only 0.62 xGA per match which drops on the road to 0.48.

Inter has dominated the recent meetings between these teams winning seven of the last eight with one draw, though Torino has held Inter to just one goal in each of the last four meetings with Inter winning 1-0 in three of those. That very well could be the final score here again.

I seem to say it every time I talk about Torino but they continue to prove they are the dividing point of Serie A. Routinely beating teams in the bottom half of the table, but they generally struggle against the top half of the table, especially the usual top six sides. Their losses to Juventus, Lazio and AC Milan already this season prove exactly that.

Torino is also in a funk offensively as they have failed to score in each of their last three matches which doesn’t bode well when facing the league’s best defense.

Torino will certainly setup defensively for this match and look to make it very tough for Inter to find space so perhaps the Under is worth a look also. I’ll stick with Inter to win though just in case Torino does grab a goal.

Prediction: Inter Moneyline -135 DraftKings

Shop both the ML and Handicap of -0.5 as both are the same bets.

AC Milan vs Juventus | Sunday October 22 | 2:45pm ET

AC Milan +115 | Draw +220 | Juventus +220
Asian Handicap: AC Milan -0.25 | Total: 2.25

Hard to want to fade Milan here as they have just one loss on the season which came in blowout fashion to Inter losing 1-5 last month, but let’s be honest, Milan haven’t had the toughest of schedules thus far.

Their wins include Bologna, Torino, Roma, Verona, Cagliari, Lazio and Genoa. Sure, Lazio finished 2nd in the table last year but I have screamed enough about the overperformance in took for that to happen. 2nd biggest overperformance in Europe (Top-5 Leagues) last season and regression was certainly due, which has happened. A win over Roma is also solid, but there has been a lot of easy opponents otherwise.

In Champions League though, AC Milan has settled for two 0-0 draws to Newcastle and Dortmund, which has me worried as this weekend’s Serie A matchup is a bad spot for Milan with a trip to Paris set on Wednesday.

There are absolutely no layups in the ‘Group of Death’ with PSG, Newcastle and Dortmund so they need to dig deep and find a win in the Champions League.

Juventus has the luxury of no European competitions to deal with this season which has them sitting 3rd in the table, four points back of Milan. However, xP (expected points) shows Juventus in 3rd with Milan just behind them in 4th.

Juventus, too, has had an easy schedule thus far with a win over Lazio and a draw vs Atalanta as the highlights.

They did have one surprising loss to Sassuolo in which they gave up four goals, but aside from that, they have been fantastic defensively, allowing just two total goals in seven other matches including keeping three straight clean sheets.

With two good defenses meeting here, the Under is also worth a look, but I’ll grab the head start on Juventus +0.25 instead with the expectation that one goal may be enough to cash this bet.

Prediction: Juventus +0.25 -110 DraftKings