Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview October 27-29

Serie A Match Betting Preview for October 27-29

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his October 27-29 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Genoa vs Salernitana and Juventus vs Verona. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Genoa vs Salernitana | October 27 | 2:45pm ET

Genoa -125 | Draw +245 | Salernitana +340
Asian Handicap: Genoa -0.75 | Total: 2.25

At quick glance, Genoa isn’t a team you want to put your money on with a 2-2-5 record, -4 goal differential and just eight points through their first nine matches.

However, they have performed better than the visitors as Salernitana is still winless on the season at 0-4-5 with only four points and are tied for the worst goal differential in the league at -13.

Digging a little deeper only furthers my desire to get behind Genoa here. Their schedule has easily been the toughest in the league as they have played only two teams in the bottom half of the table.

Their opponents thus far have included Fiorentina, Lazio, Napoli, Roma, Milan and Atalanta and considering that, they have weathered the storm rather well.

At home, they have faced Fiorentina, Napoli, Roma and then Milan. That’s brutal from the schedule makers and this will be their first match of the season in which they are the favorites.

Despite that home schedule, they have performed rather well with a win over Roma and draw vs Napoli, while holding the collective four teams to an average of only 1.08 xGA.

If they can hold some of the best teams in the league to that few of chances, I can’t imagine Salernitana, who has generated the 3rd fewest xG in the league, will be able to get many quality looks, as they have really struggled on the road.

They opened the season with a decent 2-2 draw at Roma, but have since lost to Lecce, Empoli and Monza on the road all without scoring a goal, averaging just 0.72 xG per match.

Prediction: Genoa Moneyline -125 DraftKings

Shop both the ML and -0.5 Handicap as both are the same bet.

Juventus vs Verona | October 28 | 2:45pm ET

Juventus -290 | Draw +370 | Verona +650
Asian Handicap: Juventus -1.25 | Total: 2.5

Can’t see anything but a one-sided match here. Juventus is coming off a big win at AC Milan last weekend, winning 1-0 which you can certainly argue was aided by a red card that Milan was handed at the end of the first half.

Still, that is now four straight matches that Juve has kept a clean sheet which is beginning to remind me of their run last season in which they kept eight-straight clean sheets during the same time of year.

This year though, they don’t have any distraction of any European competition and can stay solely focused on Serie A. Thus far, that seems to be helping them, and although it’s hard to argue against Inter Milan looking like the best team in the league, Juve appear to be right on their heels.

Inter Milan have earned 20.3 xP which ranks #1 in the league while Juve have earned 18.5 xP, ranking 3rd, with Napoli sitting in between. At home, Juventus have allowed just two goals in four matches and a ridiculously low 0.51 xGA average.

Granted, their schedule has been easy facing Bologna, Lazio, Lecce and Torino, but where do you think Verona ranks?

Verona has scored six goals in nine matches and has been held scoreless in four, including two of five on the road. Their away schedule has not been difficult thus far facing Empoli, Sassuolo, Frosinone, Torino and AC Milan, the latter two, the best of the those five, being the matches they were held scoreless.

Most (un)impressive this season, Verona has failed to reach at least 1.0 xG in any match as they are averaging just 0.60 per game, which is the fewest in the league by a wide margin. Can’t imagine we see them create many good chances in Turin.

Prediction: Juventus Win to Nil +105 FanDuel

This is a Same Game Parlay at DraftKings or make the Parlay yourself at FanDuel.

Cagliari vs Frosinone | October 29 | 2:45pm ET

Cagliari +125 | Draw +230 | Frosinone +195
Asian Handicap: Cagliari -0.25 | Total: 2.5

Fading Cagliari just seems a little too obvious here. Nine matches, zero wins, yet they are favored over Frosinone. Cagliari is averaging only 1.05 xG per match and have a -0.72 xG differential, the 5th worst in the league.

Compare that to Frosinone, who are more than just a team off to a lucky start. They have averaged 1.46 xG per match with a +0.12 xG differential, which ranks 9th best in Serie A.

Dare I say, they are beginning to remind me of my favorite team last year, Monza, as they are putting up very similar numbers to what Monza did the second half of last season.

Cagliari scored more than one goal for the first time this season last weekend in a 2-2 draw at Salernitana. Prior to that, they had scored just three goals in eight matches as they were held scoreless in five games.

Frosinone hasn’t been great defensively, but against some of the other weak teams in the league, they have done a solid job holding Verona, Salernitana and Udinese to one goal or fewer, while also holding Atalanta and Fiorentina to one goal.

Considering Cagliari isn’t scoring and they have conceded at least two goals in seven of nine matches, one goal from Frosinone will likely be enough to cover the spread in this one.

Prediction: Frosinone +0.25 -120 DraftKings