Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview October 6-8

Serie A Match Betting Preview for October 6-8

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his October 6-8 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Empoli vs Udinese and Juventus vs Torino. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Empoli vs Udinese | October 6 | 12:30pm ET

Empoli +200 | Draw +220 | Udinese +135
Asian Handicap: Udinese -0.25 | Total: 2.5

A winnable match for both teams? That is certainly what each will be thinking here as Udinese are still in search of their first win on the year while Empoli have scored just one goal on the entire season, but that was good enough for one win which came over Salernitana.

In seven matches, Empoli has only allowed more than two goals on just two occasions. That ridiculous game against Roma in which they allowed seven, and then last weekend allowing three to Bologna.

That means five of their seven matches have finished Under the total, mostly thanks to their inept offense.
At home they have allowed just four goals in four matches including two to Juventus and only one to Inter so they are more than capable of holding Udinese to no more than one goal here.

Even though Udinese have yet to win a match, xG suggests they have been a much better team than Empoli with a -0.35 xG differential compared to -1.08 for Empoli. xP shows Udinese earning 8.5 points instead of just the four they have earned.

Udinese allowed three goals to Juventus and four goals to Napoli, but otherwise have done a solid job defensively against weak sides, keeping clean sheets against Cagliari and Frosinone while allowing one goal to Salernitana.

They have been better than Empoli offensively, though only slightly, scoring four goals this season, but have struggled at Empoli as they haven’t scored more than one goal in their last five trips.

Both teams have the defenses to hold each other’s poor offenses from scoring and neither have the attack to blow this game open. This should be tight and ultimately low scoring.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -120 FanDuel

Juventus vs Torino | October 7 | 12:00pm ET

Juventus -140 | Draw +240 | Torino +370
Asian Handicap: Juventus -0.75 | Total: 2.25

I played Torino last weekend vs Verona but should have stuck with the Under, which is a standard Torino bet. They did exactly what I expected them to do defensively against Verona, but struggled offensively and couldn’t generate any solid chances. I fully expect them to struggle again vs Juventus who are playing well defensively.

After conceding a surprising four goals to Sassuolo, Juve has rebounded with back-to-back clean sheets against Lecce and Atalanta last weekend.

That’s four clean sheets in seven Serie A matches this season and aside from that four-goal match against Sassuolo, Juve has conceded just two goals in their other six matches combined.

What seems to be working in Juve’s favor is the lack of European competition this season which is keeping them sharp in league play.

Unlike all the other big clubs this week, Juventus can take the full week to prepare for Torino, whom they have historically dominated, going 18 straight matches without a loss. They have also held Torino to one goal or less in 16 of those 18 matches.

For all that bragging about Juventus’ defense, Torino has been solid themselves allowing just 0.95 xGA per match while keeping four clean sheets.

I often talk about how Torino does struggle against the top teams in Serie A though, but I don’t expect Juventus to get a ton of quality chances themselves as Torino will setup defensively to try and grab a point.

Eight of the last 12 Turin Derbies have finished Under this total. I’ll back it once again.

Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals -120 DraftKings

Lazio vs Atalanta | October 8 | 9:00am ET

Lazio +160 | Draw +215 | Atalanta +160
Asian Handicap: Pick’em | Total: 2.5

Going to stick with the theme this week and take another Under here. Atalanta has been great as they have kept six clean sheets in eight matches this season including their Europa match, which is now four in a row.

Sure, their schedule has been very easy thus far, but they are coming off a 0-0 draw vs Juventus last weekend that proved they can shut down the big sides, as they held Juventus to just five shots and a total of just 0.2 xG in that match.

Even when they have allowed goals, it hasn’t been on many quality chances, as three at Fiorentina came on only 1.45 xGA, and two at Frosinone came on only 0.75 xGA. Now on the season, they are allowing a mere 0.64 xGA per match, behind only Inter Milan at 0.62.

I think by now you know how I feel about Lazio. Overachievers last year and destined for a drop in the table this year, which has clearly been the case, sitting at 16th on just seven points through seven matches. Add in their Champions League fixtures as further distraction.

Offensively, Lazio are not creating chances. They are averaging only 1.03 xG this season, which ranks 13th in the league, and only twice have they even scored two goals. They have been solid though defensively, especially at home where they are allowing only 0.91 xGA. They did have two poor performances though, allowing two goals on 2.7 xGA to AC Milan and three goals on the same 2.7 xGA to Juventus.

Both teams coming off European fixtures may be a little sluggish offensively and both teams played to Unders on the weekend following the last round of Champions and Europa League. Each of the last three meetings between these sides has also finished Under the total.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -110 FanDuel