Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview September 1-3

Serie A Match Betting Preview for September 1-3

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his September 1-3 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Sassuolo vs Verona and Torino vs Genoa. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Sassuolo vs Verona | Friday September 1 | 12:30pm ET

Sassuolo -110 | Draw +255 | Verona +265
Asian Handicap: Sassuolo -0.5 | Total: 2.5

Can’t see a lot of action going in this match. Sassuolo haven’t scored a goal yet, losing by the same 0-2 scoreline in both matches.

They generated 0.38 xG vs Atalanta and a remarkably 0.15 xG vs Napoli. While Verona will certainly be an easier side to face than either of those two, on the road here I don’t see them creating much either as Verona has been solid defensively.

Verona allowed only 0.84 xG to Empoli in their first match on a total of just ten shots and I feel like that’s a good match to compare to how I think this one is going to go.

Their most recent match this past weekend they did allow 2.0 xG to Roma, though they managed to win 2-1, however I’m not too worries about Sassuolo putting up 23 shots and creating 12 corners like Roma did considering how they have looked offensively.

No matter who they play, Verona is remarkably good at dictating the pace of the match and limiting even the best teams in the league.

With that, they were an under team last season with a 15-23 Over-Under record. I think they will once again lean on their defense to keep this match close and allow even one goal to perhaps grab a win.

Considering this team had to fight against relegation until the final matchday last season, grabbing more points now is a huge head start to not have to worry about that as the season progresses.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals +100 DraftKings

Napoli vs Lazio | Saturday September 2 | 2:45pm ET

Napoli -165 | Draw +290 | Lazio +390
Asian Handicap: Napoli -0.75 | Total: 2.5

Napoli off to a great start to the season with two wins and five goals though it very well could have been more in their last match as they put up over 3.5 xG but scored just the two. They have created a total of 44 shots, 13 on goal and 18 corners created.

All as they should though considering their opponents have been Frosinone and Sassuolo. Lazio will be a much tougher task, though the visitors couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start to the season.
Lazio are 0-2 losing to Lecce and Genoa, two teams they absolutely should not be losing to.

While I’ll admit I’m surprised by the losses, I’m not surprised at the dropped points in general. Last season if you recall I kept calling them out for being frauds, and I don’t mean that they are a poor team, but I absolutely did not believe they were a Champions League caliber side.

Lazio finished 2nd with 74 points but on only 59.2 xG which ranked 7th in the league and was more indicative of where I thought they should have been in the table. That overperformance was one of the biggest in all the Big 5 Leagues and they will be a team that I will be fading in the Champions League group stage this season, but I digress.

With back-to-back losses, they are in a bad spot entering this match and I believe that pressure is going to make them vulnerable as they will likely press more than they otherwise might have to try and get something out of this match.

That is not the tactic to take vs Napoli and I like the Azzurri to take advantage and find a way to win this match.

Prediction: Napoli -0.75 -120 DraftKings

Torino vs Genoa | Sunday September 3 | 12:30pm ET

Torino -105 | Draw +220 | Genoa +290
Asian Handicap: Torino -0.5 | Total: 2.0

Low total set here for good reason. Torino is not a high-scoring team. It took until the penultimate match of the season last year for them to finally score more than two goals in a match, which was the only game in 38 in which they did so.

However, they are not a team that needs to score many to win, at least not against the bottom half of the table where they have proven to be a superior side when facing teams below them.

Case and point this season they allowed four goals to AC Milan in their last match but held Cagliari scoreless in their opener allowing just eight shots with two on goal.

That spells trouble for Genoa who have been very lackluster at creating offense so far, however they did manage to score in both matches though.

In their first match at home, they managed just four shots with two on goal in a 1-4 loss and followed that up last weekend on the road at Lazio, winning 1-0 but again, were only able to create five shots with three on goal. In neither match did they generate 1.0 xG.

I see this as a letdown spot for Genoa as they try to follow up that big win at Lazio while Torino should be able to take care of business against a team that is inferior to them, much like they have proven to do over the last several seasons.

Even though Genoa has scored in both matches, we haven’t seen much out of them in terms of creating chances and I would be surprised if they were able to create much in this match so I’ll bank on the law of averages working in our favor and take Torino combined with Genoa not scoring to get a nice + money return.

Prediction: Torino Win to Nil +195 BetMGM

(This is sometimes called Torino + Both Teams to Score NO, and is available at a Same Game Parlay)