Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview September 16-17

Serie A Match Betting Preview for September 16-17

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his September 16-17 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Inter vs AC Milan and Genoa vs Napoli. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Inter vs AC Milan | Saturday, September 16 | 12:00pm ET

Inter +110 | Draw +235 | AC Milan +225
Asian Handicap: Inter -0.25 | Total: 2.5

Something has to give in this match as both teams are 3-0 while also going 3-0 ATS. Both teams also have a midweek Champions League match coming up just three or four days after this match so no advantage to either side as far as scheduling.

If you like Inter to win the match, the safe, aka smarter, bet is to just take them to win on the ML as we are already getting a plus money return of around +110. However, I see this as a good opportunity to go a little further with it.

In four meetings in 2023 already, Inter has won all four to nil including both legs of their Champions League semifinal, a Serie A match and the Super Cup Final. Inter allowed a total of just six shots on goal over those four matches.

So far this season, Inter has yet to allow a goal although they have yet to be truly tested as their opponents have included Monza, Cagliari and Fiorentina.

Still, they have been excellent defensively allowing an average of just 0.47 xGA per match while allowing no more than two shots on goal to any of those opponents. Offensively, they have averaged a whopping 20 shots per match with 5.7 on goal.

AC Milan has also played well defensively though they have conceded to both Torino and Roma, but have allowed an average of only 0.71 xGA.

As history has shown in the Milan Derby, there hasn’t been a ton of great chances either way as much of the match is played out in the midfield with neither team getting too many looks in the final third.

Inter of course has been the better of the two in terms of creating chances and pressure which is the big reason I like them here, but with neither team controlling this match and both teams likely doing a good job of limiting one another, I also don’t see a lot of corners coming in this match with most of the action likely coming between the boxes.

Not including the one-off Super Cup, so four matches including two Champions League and two Serie A meetings, all four finished under the current total of 9.5 corners and I like that angle as well here.

Prediction: Inter Win to Nil +275 BetMGM and Under 9.5 Corners -120 DraftKings

Inter Win to Nil is standard Same Game Parlay already paired together at DraftKings or BetMGM, make the parlay yourself on FanDuel.

Genoa vs Napoli | Saturday, September 16 | 2:45pm ET

Genoa +370 | Draw +290 | Napoli -165
Asian Handicap: Napoli -0.75 | Total: 2.75

Normally I would avoid Napoli in this spot ahead of a Champions League fixture next week. Even the handicap itself looks “trappy” at just -0.75. Surely Napoli can find a way to win, right?

I do believe that answer is yes, but I don’t think it will necessarily come easy, and take that with a grain of salt because I am certainly not suggesting Genoa is a good team.

I think they are a very likely candidate to be relegated this year. I just don’t love this spot for Napoli, so if I’m going to back them to find a way to win, I don’t want to be laying north of -150 and the Asian handicap of -0.75 which would only cash half our wager on a one-goal win is also not appealing.
Instead, I’ll look to back Napoli by pairing it with Genoa to score a goal.

Genoa have had a tricky schedule thus far. They haven’t yet met any of the elite teams, but they haven’t played any other bottom dwellers either as Torino, Lazio and Fiorentina are all mid to top-half of the table teams.

Genoa’s offensive numbers haven’t been pretty, they have averaged just 5.3 shots per match and only 0.53 xG so why do I want to back them to score a goal vs Napoli?

I’m mostly playing on the distraction angle. Genoa is a team that Napoli may not be fully focused on with a trip to Portugal to face Braga coming just four days later and that could present Genoa with a couple extra chances in this match than you would normally expect.

On the flip side, if Napoli come out strong and grab a multiple goal lead, especially if it’s a 3-0 or 4-0 scoreline, I would expect to see several players subbed off and that could lead to chances as well.

Finally, not that past results will dictate this match, especially those from 5-6 years ago, but Genoa has scored at home vs Napoli in each of the last five meetings with Napoli winning four of them. At better than 2-1 on our money, it’s worth a shot.

Prediction: Napoli Moneyline + Both Teams to Score +230 BetMGM

This is standard Same Game Parlay already paired together at DraftKings or BetMGM, make the parlay yourself on FanDuel.

Fiorentina vs Atalanta | Sunday, September 17 | 12:00pm ET

Fiorentina +135 | Draw +245 | Atalanta +175
Asian Handicap: Fiorentina -0.25 | Total: 2.75

Looking at the Corners market in a match I really wouldn’t be surprised to see any result.

However, I don’t expect a ton of attacking presence in the final third from either team as I believe each will do a good job at negating one another as they have in their most recent meetings. Five of the last six meetings between these sides has finished under the corner total of 9.5 as well as each of the last four at Fiorentina.

This season, Fiorentina has finished Under this corner total in all three matches as they haven’t allowed more than three corners in any match including creating and allowing just one corner each in their loss to Inter.

Atalanta has generated seven corners themselves in each match, but they also dominated in shots taken vs Monza, Frosinone and Sassuolo to the tune of 52 shots taken vs 32 allowed combined in all three games. I doubt they will create that many more chances than Fiorentina and expect this to be much more evenly matched.

Fiorentina was embarrassed by Inter and will be eager to put in a good performance this time around, and I expect a better defensive effort at home where they were great last year. They had a +0.78 xG differential, averaged over 58% possession, outshot their opponents in all but two matches and held opponents to four corners or fewer in all but one match in which they allowed five to AC Milan.

Expect a bounce back effort from Fiorentina here which should limit Atalanta’s chances and the entire matches total corners.

Prediction: Under 9.5 Corners -120 Bet365