Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview September 23-24

Serie A Match Betting Preview for September 23-24

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his September 23-24 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including AC Milan vs Verona and Sassuolo vs Juventus. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

AC Milan vs Verona | Saturday September 23 | 9:00am ET

AC Milan -290 | Draw +290 | Verona +700
Asian Handicap: AC Milan -1.25 | Total: 2.75

AC Milan shined on Tuesday in their Champions League match vs Newcastle. Although they didn’t get the win as they settled for a 0-0 draw, it was clear who was the better team on the field.

Milan took 25 shots with eight on goal compared to just eight total shots for Newcastle and only three on goal. Milan lacked the necessary clinical finishing to win the match, but they created over 2.0 xG and I expect them to bring that confidence into this matchup with Verona.

The short turnaround of course isn’t ideal, but I was more worried about that last weekend when they played Inter, and was a big reason I faded them.

Now, with a decent start to their Champions League season behind them, they can look to rebound from their ugly loss to Inter.

Prior to that loss, AC Milan had played well defensively allowing an average of just 0.71 xGA though they did concede one goal to each Torino and Roma. They may have been at their best defensively though on Tuesday, holding Newcastle to just 0.20 xG.

That doesn’t bode well for Verona even though they have scored four goals in four matches, they have yet to generate 1.0 xG in any match as their four goals have come on a combined 2.56 xG, suggesting a regression to the mean is likely coming.

Verona doesn’t have a ‘rest’ advantage in this spot either considering their Serie A match was played on Monday, just one day prior to Milan’s Champions League game.

They failed to score at home vs Bologna taking only nine shots with just one on goal and a total of 0.41 xG. I certainly don’t think they will see more than that in Milan on Saturday, so I’ll confidently lay the number on Milan.

Prediction: AC Milan -1.25 -120 DraftKings

This is an Asian Handicap, a split line of -1.0, -1.5. If AC Milan win by one goal, we lose half our wager. Any other result is self-explanatory.

Sassuolo vs Juventus | Saturday September 23 | 12:00pm ET

Sassuolo +275 | Draw +270 | Juventus -120
Asian Handicap: Juventus -0.5 | Total: 2.75

One benefit of not having to play in any midweek European competitions is that Juventus is 100% focused on Serie A this season which should help them finish back in the Top-4 and perhaps even make a run at the Scudetto.

That starts with staying focused and winning these types of matches on the road.
I know we are only four matches into the season, but thus far Juve has looked much more like vintage Juve than we have seen the last couple of seasons.

They have averaged the 3rd most goals per game and the 2nd most xG, while allowing the 2nd fewest goals and the 2nd fewest xGA. Defensively, that is what we have known Juventus to be for years.

While they have had a rather easy schedule thus far facing Udinese, Bologna and Empoli in their first three matches, they did put up a solid result in their most recent outing beating Lazio 3-1 while holding them to just 0.70 xGA, which is basically their season average of 0.73.

Assuming we see that same Juventus side show up this weekend, Sassuolo will likely struggle to find much space to work. In their two matches against quality opposition, they lost both 0-2 to Atalanta and Napoli, creating an average of 0.27 xG in those matches.

In four matches on the season, they have just one win which came over a weak Verona side, 3-1, but followed that up with a rather embarrassing loss last weekend, conceding four goals to newly promoted Frosinone. On the season they are allowing an average of 2.14 xGA.

Sassuolo did win 1-0 at home last season, but Juventus had come in here and won five of the previous six years. I expect that trend to bounce back this weekend at a fair price.

Prediction: Juventus ML -110 BetMGM

Shop both the ML and Asian Handicap of -0.5 which are the same bet.

Empoli vs Inter | Sunday September 24 | 6:30am ET

Empoli +700 | Draw +425 | Inter -330
Asian Handicap: Inter -1.5 | Total: 3.0

There isn’t much handicapping involved in this match. If the same Inter Milan we have seen all season shows up, this should be a straightforward win and likely without Empoli getting on the scoresheet. The only tricky thing about this match is the spot for Inter coming off their Champions League match vs Sociedad on Wednesday.

But as much as this is a play on Inter, it’s also a fade of Empoli who have yet to score a goal, the only remaining scoreless team in all the Big 5 European Leagues.

Though, their performance against Roma this past weekend may also signal the time to take Empoli because there are very few people that will want to bet any team coming off a 0-7 loss (vs Roma).

That just means oddsmakers must inflate the line the opposite way, likely leaving value on them. Still, even knowing that, it’s hard to want to put our money on them, especially when looking deeper into their last two matches which came against quality opposition, Juventus and Roma.

Against Juventus, Empoli created just 0.30 xG with no shots on target and against Roma they created even less at 0.17 xG, though they did manage to force two saves from the keeper.

The question then just becomes how to play Inter. The plus price on Inter to keep a clean sheet and win is hard to pass on.

You can also lay the -1.5 handicap which I’m perfectly fine with as well. If Empoli do finally get on the scoresheet, a 3-1 Inter win, will still cover the number. Remember, Inter has won all four matches by at least two goals this season, meaning they are a perfect 4-0 against this spread.

Prediction: Inter Milan Win To Nil +125 BetMGM, or Inter -1.5 -105 DraftKings

This is an already made Same Game Parlay on DraftKings or BetMGM. You can make it yourself on FanDuel. This is also referred to as Inter to Win and Empoli Not to Score.