Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview September 30-October 2

Serie A Match Betting Preview for September 30-October 2

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his September 30-October 2 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Lecce vs Napoli and Torino vs Verona. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Lecce vs Napoli | September 30 | 9:00am ET

Lecce +320 | Draw +270 | Napoli -130
Asian Handicap: Napoli -0.75 | Total: 2.5

Look-ahead spot here for Napoli with Real Madrid waiting on deck on Tuesday in the Champions League. No matter how much better Napoli is on paper than Lecce, this is going to be a tough match.

Lecce has been playing well and should bring plenty of confidence into this match. While they did lose midweek at Juventus, I think they will put up a much better fight at home.

That was their first loss on the season which includes a win over Lazio and a draw with Fiorentina. They have won all three matches at home.

The Azzurri also have the distraction going on with Victor Osimhen and whatever those posts were supposed to be from the Napoli’s accounts.

I’m not going to get into all of that, but it certainly affects my desire to bet on Napoli. Of course, Osimhen did score two goals, and all looked good on Wednesday in their 4-1 win over Udinese, but as more time goes on, I just don’t know what to expect.

So instead, I think the total presents a good opportunity for us. Lecce will certainly setup defensively to try and thwart Napoli’s attack as that will be their best chance at grabbing a result from this match, while both the look ahead spot, and the Osimhen distraction, could make for a frustrating day for the Azzurri, which will only get worse as the match goes on, if they can’t break through Lecce’s defense.

If Napoli do score first, especially if it’s later in the match, while they will want a second goal to give them that safety net, I’m not sure how hard they will push for it, especially if Lecce are still content with sitting back.

Napoli could go into protect mode late as they simply try to sneak out with a win and move on to their Champions League match with Madrid.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -120

Roma vs Frosinone | October 1 | 2:45pm ET

Roma -255 | Draw +330 | Frosinone +600
Asian Handicap: Roma -1.25 | Total: 2.5

Roma has struggled against teams they should be beating this year. They drew with Salernitana in their Serie A opener, lost at Verona, snuck away with a one-goal win at Sheriff in the Europa League, then settled for another draw at Torino.

Yes, they did then win 7-0 vs Empoli, but I’m not putting too much into that one game against the worst team in the league.

Frosinone has been playing well to start the season and of course don’t have any distractions in a European competition as Roma will once again play on Thursday, just four days after this match.

It isn’t the toughest of competition, playing Servette from Switzerland, but still, something Mourinho has to think about and plan ahead for.

Frosinone, after an opening loss to the defending Champions, Napoli, have now gone four matches unbeaten with wins over Atalanta and a surging Sassuolo side who are off back-to-back wins over Juventus and Inter themselves.

In their two road matches, Frosinone earned two draws at Udinese and Salernitana. While Roma is certainly a better side on paper than those two, I just don’t see a blowout happening.

Frosinone will do everything they can to slow the match down and frustrate Roma and if the visitors can find a goal somewhere, I just don’t see Roma putting up three to cover this number, so I’ll grab the +1.25 head start.

Prediction: Frosinone +1.25 -125

Torino vs Verona | October 2 | 12:30pm ET

Torino -110 | Draw +225 | Verona +290
Asian Handicap: Torino -0.5 | Total: 2.25

Torino did just lose midweek at Lazio but have had a good season otherwise. I say it all the time, to anyone who will listen, but Torino time and again, prove they are the dividing point of the league.

They struggle against the teams above them, specifically the top six or seven teams in the league, while they generally control the match and win often against the teams at the bottom of the table.

Looking at the table, Verona isn’t currently sitting near the bottom of the table, as they won their first two matches of the year over lowly Empoli and a surprising win over Roma.

However, this team barely survived last year, and all signs are pointing toward another finish near the bottom.

xG shows Verona with a -0.82 average xG differential this season and although they have earned seven points thus far, xP (expected points) shows them at 4.36 which is the 2nd fewest in the league. This team is not good and will not win many more matches this season.

In three matches against inferior opponents, Torino has allowed an average of just 0.41 xGA to Salernitana, Genoa and Cagliari. They also aren’t a team to score many themselves, but all they likely need is one goal to win this match. If you aren’t feeling a side, I do believe the Under is another good option for this match.

Prediction: Torino Moneyline or -0.5 -110

Shop both the ML and Handicap of -0.5 as both are the same bet.