Serie A Predictions, Picks, Odds and Best Bets for May 19-21

Serie A Match Betting Preview for May 19-21

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his May 19-21 Serie A match predictions and best bets including Sassuolo vs Monza and AC Milan vs Sampdoria. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Sassuolo vs Monza | Friday 5/19 | 2:45pm ET

Sassuolo +110 | Draw +255 | Monza +215
Asian Handicap: Monza -0.25 | Total: 2.5

I will continue to sound like a broken record until Monza give me a reason to change my strategy which is rather simple. Bet on Monza. I might hesitate if they are ever listed as favorites, but they continue to be the underdog, so I continue to bet them, and we keep cashing.

Over their last 11 matches dating back to the beginning of March, they have just one loss which includes wins vs Inter, Napoli and Fiorentina, plus a draw vs Roma. During their two-month run, they are 2nd in Serie A with 20 points, behind only Fiorentina who have 21.

Monza conceded two goals to Lazio, their only loss during this stretch, and two goals to Fiorentina which they won 3-2.

Otherwise, they have held their opponents to one goal or less in nine of their 11 matches. They have allowed 1.10 xGA per 90 minutes during this stretch, compared to 1.54 in their first 24 matches this season.

Sassuolo have two wins over their last eight matches which includes losses to Verona and Salernitana plus draws vs Torino and Bologna. Their one quality result was a win vs Juventus.

They have been solid at home this year with eight wins, four draws and five losses but their xG numbers are not that impressive, basically dead-even at home, averaging 1.27 xG compared to 1.25 xGA.

With three matches remaining, Sassuolo have nothing left to play for which could also be said about Monza but finishing in the top-half of the table, as high as 8th and being listed as the “best of the rest” behind the clear Top-7 in the league is a big deal for Monza.

Prediction: Monza +0.25 -110

AC Milan vs Sampdoria | Saturday 5/20 | 2:45pm ET

AC Milan -600 | Draw +600 | Sampdoria +1100
Asian Handicap: AC Milan -2.0 | Total: 3.0

Now that Milan is eliminated from the Champions League, all their focus is needed on their final three matches to try and climb back into the Top-4 to secure Champions league football for next season.

They currently trail Lazio by four points and there is no better team for them to face when needing to win than the already relegated Sampdoria.

Milan absolutely needs this match as they travel to Juventus the following week and I don’t think anyone is going to make an argument against Milan beating Sampdoria.

There is a reason they are -600 favorites. Obviously, that is not a number we want to lay, so instead, I see a good opportunity to pair it with the Under.

Since a 1-3 loss to Udinese back in mid-March, Milan was on a run of nine straight matches without a loss until their Leg 1 loss to Inter.

They then subsequently lost at Spezia in a very tough spot sandwiched between both Champions League matches, and then lost again to Inter in Leg 2, failing to get on the scoreboard in all three matches.

But they go as their defense goes. Those back-to-back matches in which they allowed two goals snapped an eight-match streak of allowing one goal or fewer. But since they have also been struggling to score, they have stayed Under 2.5 goals in 11 straight matches in all competitions.

Milan though should be able to find the net though in this one though vs the league’s worst defense while at the same time, it seems unlikely that Sampdoria will get many chances as they are also the league’s worst offense. I’m not sure they will get on the board which means Milan would have to score four goals for this play to lose which I don’t see happening.

Prediction: AC Milan + Under 3.5 Goals -110

Udinese vs Lazio | Sunday 5/21 | 2:45pm ET

Udinese +250 | Draw +240 | Lazio -105
Asian Handicap: Lazio -0.5 | Total: 2.5

I’ve said it for a couple of weeks now making the prediction that Lazio fall out of the Top-4 and lose their Champions League qualification.

I just simply don’t believe the team is as good as their table position. I’ll reference their xG data once again. They are the 8th ranked team in Serie A in xP (expected points) behind the obvious Top-6 and even Torino. They have conceded just 28 goals this season but on a much higher 41.5 xGA.

That 13.5 goal overperformance defensively, surprisingly, is only 2nd in the league behind Empoli of all teams and is 4th in all of the Big 5 leagues behind Barcelona and Fulham.

Those results have finally started to surface with just one win over their last five matches. They lost to Torino, AC Milan and Inter and most recently failed to beat Lecce at home, settling for a 2-2 draw last weekend.

Meanwhile Udinese continue to plug along with just four losses over their last 12 matches but at home, they have been very tough to beat. Since the WC break, they have just one loss at home in ten matches and on the season, they have lost just twice.

They have beaten AC Milan, Inter, Roma and Fiorentina this season while also drawing vs Napoli and Atalanta. There is no reason to think they can’t get a home result here vs a faltering Lazio side.

The one negative could be argued the Udinese doesn’t have anything to play for, but I still expect them to come out and fight at home vs a quality side for their fans. xP has Udinese at 47 points, just 4.5 behind Lazio instead of the 19 points that the table is showing.

If the actual table had these teams separated by just 4-5 points, do you think we would be getting the double chance at home at a very good price?

Prediction: Udinese +0.5 (DOUBLE CHANCE) -120