Serie A Predictions, Picks, Odds and Best Bets for Sunday June 4

Serie A Match Betting Preview for Sunday June 4

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his Sunday June 4 Serie A match predictions and best bets including Lecce vs Bologna and Roma vs Spezia. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Lecce vs Bologna | Sunday June 4 | 3:00pm ET

Lecce +165 | Draw +220 | Bologna +150
Asian Handicap: Pick’em | Total: 2.5

I like this to be open and fun in a match that means absolutely nothing to either side. Lecce especially, deserves a match in which they can just play without the constant worry of relegation as their 90+11’ penalty gave them a 1-0 win over my beloved Monza, which is suspect that the match was even still playing, but I digress.

That win secured their safety in Serie A for another season meaning this match is now a home send-off for them to play without any pressure. Despite needing until Matchday 37 to clinch their position, Lecce has underperformed this season as xP (expected points) has them sitting 13th in the table, just ahead of, you guessed it, Bologna.

Lecce’s defense has been very good, ranking T-7th in xGA, allowing an average of 1.15 per 90 minutes. They are tied with Lazio, a Champions League side, who I often mentioned how big of an overperformance they had this season, which case in point, the #2 team in the table is tied with the #16th team in the table in xGA, but again, I digress.

Lecce’s issues have been on the offensive side as they are one of five teams averaging less than 1.0 xG per match this season, but Bologna rank in the bottom six defensively according to xG, allowing 1.47 xGA.

Bologna has also been very good at home, but has struggled away, allowing 1.74 xGA, as they have kept just one clean sheet all year with a 13-5 Over record.

I like Lecce to look to put on a show for their fans as a thank you for a tough season and something to get excited about for next season.

Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals -105

AC Milan vs Verona | Sunday June 4 | 3:00pm ET

AC Milan -125 | Draw +250 | Verona +310
Asian Handicap: AC Milan -0.5 | Total: 2.5

AC Milan can hang their hats on a very good season, making it to the semifinals of the Champions League and once again securing UCL football next season as they clinched their Top-4 position with wins over Sampdoria and Juventus.

However, unlike a little club like Lecce who will likely use their final match as a sort of “victory lap,” I would expect a big club like AC Milan to give some minutes to some of their younger or less experienced players as they look for potential for next season.

That coupled with the fact that Verona is fighting for their lives, and you can understand why this line is much lower than it otherwise would have been, considering Milan were -1.0 favorites at Verona earlier this season.

Verona sits on 31 points, tied with Spezia, but trail in the head-to-head tiebreaker, meaning they must better the result of Spezia to avoid relegation.

Verona has been much better since the WC break and they temporarily pulled themselves out of the relegation zone, but two losses and a draw in their last three has them in a dire position heading into the final matchday.

If AC Milan do put out their usual starting XI, it will obviously be a tall task for Verona to earn points here, but if they rotate as I expect they will, Verona could grab something from this match which presents a good reason to take them on the Double Chance.

However, I like the Under more in this match. If Verona is going to earn a result, it seems very unlikely that they would score multiple goals doing so. 1-0 or 1-1 seem like the only two results that Verona come take points in this match, but the Under also provides us the opportunity to still cash our wager if AC Milan do win 1-0 or 2-0.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -115

Roma vs Spezia | Sunday June 4 | 3:00pm ET

Roma -110 | Draw +255 | Spezia +255
Asian Handicap: Roma -0.5 | Total: 2.5

I’m going with the Under here for a lot of the same reasons as the AC Milan/Verona match. Plus, add in the fact that Roma needs to better the result of Juventus to secure a Europa League birth next season as they missed their opportunity for Champions League football with their loss in the Europa League final to Sevilla on Wednesday.

Admittedly, it will be hard for Roma to ‘get up’ for this match following that disappointment and with Mourinho’s future sounding a little uncertain as he was asked plenty of questions about it after the match. That does make Spezia Double Chance look rather intriguing as they are in the relegation battle with Verona.

Spezia just need to earn at least the same result as Verona to secure their safety next season and they appear to be catching Roma in a good spot here.

On the season, Spezia have struggled defensively allowing 1.66 xGA per match which is the 5th highest average in the league.

They also don’t create enough chances as they have only averaged 1.07 xG per 90 minutes and face one of the best defenses in Europe as Roma have allowed only 0.86 xGA in Serie A this season.

Those numbers are the reason I am choosing the Under instead of taking Spezia as Mourinho could very well get his “lads,” as he kept referring to them in his post-Europa Final interview, up for this match and play out a typical 1-0 or 2-0 Roma win. I’ll trust the numbers that have been there all year in a match I expect both sides to try and win.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -120