Spanish La Liga Predictions, Picks and Best Bets March 15-17

Predictions and Picks for La Liga Matches March 15-17

WagerTalk La Liga handicapper Kevin Dolan presents his March 15-17 La Liga predictions and betting preview around key La Liga matches including Osasuna vs Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his La Liga betting tips now!

Real Sociedad vs Cadiz | Friday March 15 | 4:00pm ET

Real Sociedad -210 | Cadiz +725 | Draw +305

Cadiz takes on Real Sociedad over in San Sebastian this Friday night looking to drag themselves out of the relegation zone with what would be only their 4th victory of the current campaign so far.

That event looks extremely unlikely given the bookmakers’ current projections for this game, with Real Sociedad being priced up as well over -200 home favorites to win this game, but Cadiz showed they’re more than capable of upsetting the odds as they overcame heavyweights Atletico Madrid last weekend as huge +350 underdogs.

The main key for Cadiz in this one is if they can keep this game tight early, as they’ve shown throughout the season so far that most of their issues in games have come during the second half, owning a 61% clean sheet percentage inside the first half as opposed to just 36% in the second half this year.

Because of that, Cadiz owns LaLiga’s 3rd highest outright draw rate at the half this season, with 14 of their 28 games being level at halftime.

This increases to 57% when away from home also as Cadiz has tended to play a little more conservatively, and that’s something that’s likely to play out here once again as Cadiz looks to shut down Real Sociedad in this one, full game, but especially across the opening 45 minutes.

Take the first half draw at plus money on Friday between Cadiz and Real Sociedad.

La Liga Prediction: 1H Draw (+120)

Osasuna vs Real Madrid | Saturday March 16 | 11:15am ET

Osasuna +510 | Real Madrid -185 | Draw +325

Real Madrid’s seven-point gap at the top of the LaLiga table continues unabated as they travel to take on mid-table Osasuna on Saturday.

After some relatively patchy form in the league of late, Real Madrid restored order last weekend with a comprehensive 4-0 victory over Celta Vigo as they await the quarter-final pairings in the Champions League.

For Osasuna, it’s been a steady stream of positive results across recent months, ranking 5th in recent league home form registering a pretty impressive 2.50 PPG on average, a points tally achieved by winning five of their last six games outright in Pamplona.

A key component of that solid recent form for Osasuna has been their ability to marshall their backline effectively in games, allowing one of the league’s lowest overall corner rates this season, and sitting as one of only four teams in the league yet to allow more than nine corners to an opponent in a single matchup so far this year.

Another one of those four teams is Real Madrid, who not only own the league’s best opposition corner rate this season at just 3.18 on average, but also the joint-3rd lowest standard Under 9.5 corner rate as well with just 36% of all of their games this year witnessing ten or more corners.

Look for those two stats to combine in this one in a game we expect to see a lot fewer corners in on Saturday.

La Liga Prediction: Under 9.5 Corners (-125)

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona | Sunday March 17 | 4:00pm ET

Atletico Madrid +140 | Barcelona +180 | Draw +265

Instead of having LaLiga title race implications that many people expected heading into the final quarter of the season, Real Madrid’s almost run-away lead at the top of the table has led both Barcelona and Atletico Madrid, especially Atletico, to be nervously looking over their shoulder instead as the Colchoneros sit just two points ahead of Athletic Bilbao for the final Champions League spot in the table as the Basque side have continued to keep up the pressure across recent weeks.

Therefore a defeat in this one for either side wouldn’t exactly be ideal, especially for Atletico, so we’re expecting a more subdued game on Sunday than perhaps what the oddsmakers are projecting ahead of this weekend.

It’s easy to see why the over is favored here however, especially as Barcelona have failed to score in just two of their 28 league games so far this season, while Atletico Madrid (alongside Barcelona) remain as one of only two teams that have scored in every single one of their home games so far this year, with both teams ranking top four in overall scoring also.

That said, both teams’ underlying data this season, along with recent meetings in this venue, suggest a very different picture, with Barcelona owning the league’s #1 defensive xGA data away from home this season, while Atletico Madrid ranks #2 at home.

In terms of recent meetings over at the Metropolitano, all of the last six have seen two or fewer goals scored, with each of the last four witnessing at least one of the teams fail to find the back of the net as well.

We’re going with the underlying data and H2H trends in this one instead of season-long form, and taking Under 2.75 goals on Sunday in the matchup between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid at the Metropolitano.

La Liga Prediction: Under 2.75 (+100)