Spanish La Liga Predictions, Picks and Odds May 10-12
Predictions and Picks for Spanish La Liga Matches May 10-12
WagerTalk La Liga handicapper Kevin Dolan presents his May 10-12 Spanish La Liga predictions and betting preview around key La Liga matches including Alaves vs Girona and Cadiz vs Getafe. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his La Liga betting tips now!
Alaves vs Girona | Friday May 10 | 3:00pm ET
Alaves +260 | Girona +105 | Draw +260
After what’s been a fantastic season for the Catalan club overall, still currently ahead of their far more illustrious neighbors Barcelona heading into Matchday 35, second-placed Girona will take on mid-table Alaves on Friday night over at the Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Girona added yet another black eye to their neighbor’s chances of finishing above them in the table over the weekend with another 4-2 victory over Barcelona, their second of the season against them.
Alaves meanwhile secured a 1-0 road win against Valencia last time out, winning each of their last three league games as well, with the ‘Babazorros’ showing no signs of downing tools to close out the season.
At home, Alaves have consistently presented a tough out for Girona across recent seasons, with the Catalan club winning just one of their last four head-to-head visits to this venue.
On top of that, Alaves actually owns the league’s 4th best defensive xGA rating at home this season also, with Girona ranking bottom-half away from home in that same category.
Alaves also ranks top five in home advantage performance this season as well (26% more goals scored / 11% fewer goals allowed), so the venue will likely play a huge determining factor in deciding this game.
Overall, as good as Girona has been this season, we’re siding with a tough Alaves side to get a result at home in this one.
La Liga Prediction: Alaves +0.5 (-125)
Mallorca vs Las Palmas | Saturday May 11 | 8:00am ET
Mallorca -150 | Las Palmas +550 | Draw +440
A run of five straight games without a win for Mallorca in the league has ensured that they haven’t been able to escape the specter of the relegation fight going on immediately beneath them heading into Matchday 35.
A win here on Saturday would go a long way in removing those concerns however, but that may be easier said than done given Mallorca’s less-than-impressive recent form in the league that has netted them just 0.40 PPG across their last five starts, the second-worst mark in the entire league.
They face a Las Palmas side in this one who are effectively on the beach early, safe in mid-table as they are, and coming off seven consecutive defeats in league action also.
It’s incredibly difficult to trust either of these two teams given their current form as while the motivation aspect is clearly with Mallorca ahead of this one, that’s already been heavily factored into the match line, with Mallorca being roughly 9% over-valued here going by our power rankings.
Mallorca should win this game however given their overall greater need and Las Palmas’ apparent lack of focus right now. However, laying -150 is simply a non-starter, so instead look to back Mallorca to win and not concede on Saturday at a far more palatable +120.
La Liga Prediction: Mallorca to Win in Shutout (+120)
Cadiz vs Getafe | Sunday May 12 | 8:00am ET
Cadiz +105 | Getafe +290 | Draw +225
Cadiz certainly showed their limitations in last weekend’s loss against league leaders Real Madrid, giving up three goals in the second half of that game to ensure that they stay locked into the relegation zone ahead of Matchday 35.
That loss against Real Madrid last week was Cadiz’s 4th winless effort in as many games, and time is fast running out for the Yellow Submarines with this being their penultimate home game of the season.
That will no doubt lead to a best effort here on Sunday against a team in Getafe that has relatively little to play for, but who are nonetheless a top ten side in the table this year, and who shouldn’t be underestimated in this one as a result despite their apparent lack of motivation.
Because of the need to win for Cadiz in this game against a largely unmotivated side in Getafe, very similar to what we talked about in last week’s article in terms of the Real Madrid game, Cadiz has been priced up far too strongly in this one at current odds of +107, a 48.3% implied probability, which is very hard to justify given all of their problems this season.
Getafe has lost just one of their last four games overall, that coming against a very good Athletic Bilbao side, so they should be more than capable of avoiding defeat against a relegation-battling Cadiz team on Sunday.
La Liga Prediction: Getafe +0.5 (-125)
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