Torino vs Salernitana Prediction and Picks | Serie A Betting April 16
Torino vs Salernitana Betting Preview
Sportsmemo soccer handicapper Nick Borrman gives his prediction and picks for this Torino vs Salernitana Serie A match before start time at 9:00am ET Sunday, coming from Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Turin, Italy. Torino and Salernitana sit 11th and 15th respectfully in the Serie A standings heading in.
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Torino vs Salernitana Betting Odds
| Sunday, April 16 | Serie A Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Salernitana: | +420 |
| Torino: | -135 |
| Draw: | +255 |
| Total: | 2.25 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 9:00am ET / 6:00am PT |
Torino vs Salernitana Betting Analysis
Not the most high-profile Serie A match of the weekend but I see a good opportunity to grab the Under in what I expect to be a low-scoring match.
If you look at just recent results for both teams, you may not be all that thrilled to back an Under the is juiced, but the data behind the results is more telling of the lack of quality chances, especially in Salernitana’s matches.
Salernitana Needs to Score More
The visitors have scored in four straight matches but have averaged just 0.83 xG in those four matches, but if we got back even further, the numbers are even worse.
Over their last 16 matches, Salernitana has scored a total of 15 goals, which is obviously less than one per match. Their xG too shows a paltry 0.75 xG generated per 90 minutes over those 16 matches.
The numbers are skewed somewhat as well as Salernitana scored nine combined goals in just four matches meaning they scored a total of six goals in their other 12.
They worry is most certainly their defense which has conceded 30 goals on 35.17 xGA, an average of 2.20 xGA per 90 minutes. The good news is that Torino is unlikely to be a side to put up many goals themselves.
Torino Tough to Judge
Torino has scored a total of 30 goals in 29 matches this season and not one time have they scored more than two goals.
So, if you believe that trend to continue, that would mean Salernitana will have to get on the scoreboard in order for this to finish Over the total and I’m not sure that will happen.
Torino is sort of the dividing point of Serie A. Clearly well below the Top-6 or 7 teams in the league, but generally superior to the bottom half of the table and their results clearly show that.
In their last ten matches, they have allowed 15 goals, but only on 1.09 xGA per 90 minutes. They allowed four goals twice to Juventus and Napoli as evidence of my point.
Further, if we remove the four matches against Roma, Napoli, Juventus, and AC Milan, in their other six most recent matches, that have allowed a stingy 0.65 xGA against the mid to bottom half of the table sides.
Torino vs Salernitana Expert Prediction
These teams played out a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture this season in a match that was dominated by Torino.
Assuming we see something similar, I don’t think Salernitana gets on the sheet this time around and Torino has proven they aren’t going to get over this number themselves.
Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals -120
Soccer Betting Tips
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic soccer betting tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.
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About The Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago.
Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe.
Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League.
Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America.
Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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