UEFA Europa League Predictions, Picks and Odds for May 11

Betting Preview for UEFA Europa League Predictions May 11

WagerTalk Europa League handicapper Kevin Dolan presents his UEFA Europa League predictions and picks for May 11 including Roma vs Leverkusen and West Ham vs AZ Alkmaar. Which teams is he looking to advance and which will have goals being scored? Read his betting preview now!

Roma vs Leverkusen | Thursday, May 11 | 2:00 pm ET

Roma +110 | Leverkusen +165 | Draw +230

Last year’s Europa Conference League winners Roma will look to go one better this season by lifting the Europa League crown, a feat manager Jose Mourinho has managed twice over his illustrious career so far with two other clubs, FC Porto and Manchester United respectively.

That looks like another distinct possibility again however as Roma have been incredibly impressive over their Europa League campaign so far this season, blasting out opponents across their three knockout ties 8-1 inside the Stadio Olimpico this year.

A large part of that success for Roma has come in a high-tempo setup, with the ‘Giallorossi’ ranking top three in both overall aggression and aerial duels won this season, as well as averaging a colossal 20 shots per game at home this season also, by far the highest tally out of any team still remaining in the competition.

They face a Bayer Leverkusen side in this one however that shouldn’t be underestimated, especially on the road, where they’ve arguably done the most damage this season.

‘Die Werkself’ outscored Monaco, Ferencvaros and Union Saint-Gilloise away from home 10-3 across the knockout rounds this season, and likely won’t fear a trip to the Italian capital either as they managed to put a real scare on Roma the last time they visited here back in 2015.

Leverkusen were able to roar back into that game with two goals in just five minutes early in the second half of their Champions League group game after suffering an early deficit, before Roma were able to rally late and get a penalty to secure the win.

This should be a fascinating encounter in the Stadio Olimpico on Thursday night, but one we nonetheless expect the Italian side to edge out.

Prediction: Roma -0.25 (-125)

West Ham vs AZ Alkmaar | Thursday, May 11 | 2:00pm ET (UECL)

West Ham -175 | AZ Alkmaar +515 | Draw +305

Despite a disappointing Premier League campaign for the Hammers this season, they’ll be bouyed by a fantastic last couple of months overall, losing just two of their last eleven games at home and coming off an excellent 1-0 victory over Manchester United on Sunday as well.

The tournament favorites will also no doubt feel confident after scoring four goals in both of their previous knockout round home ties against AEK Larnaca and Gent as well, with Michail Antonio doing the damage for the Hammers in Europe this season scoring four goals so far.

However, while West Ham have been impressive in this competition to date, AZ Alkmaar will present a huge step up for them in this one, and have already shown how dangerous they are in Europe this season by going over to Italy and putting out high-flyers Lazio earlier in the campaign.

AZ Alkmaar dominated their group earlier in this competition generating 15 points from six games and have the second best road record in the Dutch Eredivisie this year as well.

Metrically, very little separates these teams either, with West Ham owning a better overall xG rating at home than AZ Alkmaar does based on home/road form splits, but with the teams being comparable defensively, the current line does appear a little disrespectful in terms of how competitive AZ Alkmaar are likely to be in this game.

The Dutch side came off another excellent display away from home on Saturday with a draw against Ajax, and should provide another stern test in this one also in a game we can only look towards taking the road team catching a full goal headstart on Thursday against West Ham in their Europa Conference League semi-final first-leg matchup over in London.

Prediction: AZ Alkmaar +1 (-115)

Fiorentina vs Basel | Thursday, May 11 | 2:00pm ET (UECL)

Fiorentina -265 | Basel +705 | Draw +410

The line on this game has trended massively in Fiorentina’s favor since earlier in the week, going from an opener of Fiorentina -1 (-130) on Sunday, a line we heavily favored as we gave out a free write-up and prediction on the game late Sunday night which is still up at Wagertalk, to the current line of Fiorentina -1.5 (+105).

That’s a line move of roughly 35/40c and is far too much for us to get involved at this point, but with that said, we still expect Fiorentina to win this one by margin on Thursday night against FC Basel.

‘I Viola’ have been tremendous in front of goals this year in Europa Conference League action, scoring an average of 3.25 goals per game across their final four group games, and barely slowing down in the knockout rounds either, putting seven goals past Braga over two legs, five goals past Sivasspor, and six goals past Lech Poznan to get to the semi-final stage of this tournament.

Basel meanwhile have struggled to navigate this campaign in the same fashion so far, grinding out extremely close results and haven’t looked good away from home either.

Basel lost outright away from home against Trabzonspor earlier in the competition, and badly lost the xG battle in both of their subsequent road ties away to Nice and Slovan Bratislava also, despite managing to come out on the right side of those results.

Fiorentina have the highest offensive xG output out of any team at home in this competition, and with the tournaments joint top scorer this year, Arthur Cabral, in top form going into this one as well, going up against his former team it must be added.

Look for Fiorentina to continue to find the back of the net in the Stadio Artemi Franchi on Thursday with a comprehensive first-leg win over Basel.

Prediction: Fiorentina -1.5 (+105)