WagerTalk Serie A Power Rankings Heading Into Matchday 31

Serie A Power Rankings Top 5

As we head towards the home stretch of the La Liga regular season, Sportsmemo Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his Serie A Power Rankings heading into matchday 31. Which teams are slotted at the top and which are headed towards relegation? Read his power rankings now!

1. Napoli 

L/5 Form – 3rd [2.0 PPG], L/5 xPTS – 6th [7.90 xPTS]

The league leaders are not in the best form at the moment with just one win over their last four matches including a Leg 1 Champions League loss to AC Milan. 

However, they had the injury excuse, most notably Golden Boot leader Victor Osimhen, but he is set to make his return in Leg 2 as they look to overcome a one goal deficit to the Rossoneri. 

Not much to worry about right now in Serie A, all steam ahead as they try to secure their first ever Champions League semifinal.

2. Lazio

L/5 Form – 1st [2.6 PPG], L/5 xPTS – 12th [6.03 xPTS]

They have been overperforming their xG numbers all season so it’s no surprise they have four wins and a draw earning nearly double their expected points over their last five matches. 

Lazio have quietly settled into the 2nd position in the table and are benefitting from no more European competitions as the likes of Inter, AC Milan, Napoli and Juventus continue to drop points.  18 clean sheets this season leads Serie A.

3. Roma

L/5 Form – Tied 5th [1.8 PPG], L/5 xPTS – 3rd [9.22 xPTS]

Just following the actual table positions here, but there is more to it.  Roma leads Serie A allowing just 0.78 xGA per 90 minutes and create the most xG/shot at 0.139. 

That means they only take quality chances, and they don’t allow many.  Their season will be made over their next three matches.  Leg 2 vs Feyenoord on Thursday in the Europa League followed by Atalanta and AC Milan.  Gulp.

4. Juventus

L/5 Form – Tied 5th [1.8 PPG], L/5 xPTS – 5th [9.09 xPTS]

If it wasn’t for their 15-point deduction, Juve would currently sit 3rd in the table, just two points back of Lazio. 

They are appealing that ruling and there is solid optimism that they will get at least some of their points back which could firmly put them back in a Champions League spot. 

The fact that they are only five points back of a European qualification even with the penalty says it all.  Back-to-back losses, but 17 clean sheets on the season.

5. Inter

L/5 Form – Tied 19th [0.2 PPG], L/5 xPTS – 4th [9.17 xPTS]

Hard to even want to list Inter here with just one single point from their last five games but their xG data says it all. 

9.17 xPTS yet they have managed just one.  That’s hard to do.  Plus, they are on the verge of a Champions League semifinal.  I think they will be just fine.

Serie A Bottom 5 Power Rankings

16. Verona

L/5 Form – Tied 13th [1.0 PPG], L/5 xPTS – 19th [3.82 xPTS]

I only have them ranked this low by virtue of their actual table position as they sit in the relegation zone, three points behind Spezia. 

However, they are allowing just 1.34 xGA per 90 minutes this season which ranks 11th.  Three of their next four matches are winnable so now’s the time for them to make a move.

17. Spezia

L/5 Form – Tied 13th [1.0 PPG], L/5 xPTS – 18th [3.97 xPTS]

While they currently sit three points above Verona in the relegation battle, Verona’s defense is far superior. 

Spezia are allowing the 3rd most xGA per 90 minutes at 1.81 and generate the fewest shots per match at just 10.1.  Like Verona, three of their next four games are winnable, so a lot will be decided in the next few weeks.

18. Salernitana

L/5 Form – Tied 13th [1.0 PPG], L/5 xPTS – 20th [3.34 xPTS]

Salernitana are drawing their way to safety as they have now played to six straight draws and sit seven points clear of the relegation line. 

Still, I can’t help but mention they allow the most xGA per 90 minutes at 1.98 while creating the 3rd fewest at 0.97 leading to the worst xG differential in the league.  They have just mastered the art of the 1-1 draw.

19. Cremonese

L/5 Form – Tied 8th [1.4 PPG], L/5 xPTS – 16th [4.93 xPTS]

Seven points from their last five matches after just nine points in their first 25 has given them the slightest hope, but they are still seven points back of a moving goal line to safety. 

They have allowed the most goals in the league this season.  Can’t expect a newly promoted side to stay up without playing a little defense.

20. Sampdoria

L/5 Form – Tied 17th [0.8 PPG], L/5 xPTS – 17th [4.41 xPTS]

Not even a miracle will save them now.  They have been at the bottom of the table all year thanks to allowing the 2nd most goals in the league with 51.  They also generate the fewest xG per 90 minutes in the league at just 0.93.  Maybe we will see them back in two seasons.