USA vs Iran Prediction, Betting Picks and Top Odds | Three Massively Bold Prop Picks

USA vs Iran Prediction & Betting Preview

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Phew!  It’s come down to this.  The third and final match of Group B for both the USA and Iran.  USA vs Iran live at 2 PM EST should be a tense affair!

Group B has England sitting on 4 points, Iran on 3 points, the USA on 2 points, and Wales on 1 point.  

Iran has 3 points from a 2-0 victory over Wales, while the US has a 1-1 draw against Wales and a 0-0 draw against England for their 2 points.

The situation for the USMNT in the USA vs Iran match is simple – win and they progress – probably to face Holland in the knockout rounds. 

It’s a bit more complicated for Iran – if they win, they’re obviously in.  However, if they draw the US and Wales beats England, Iran is out. If they lose, they’re out as well.  Still, Iran is almost certainly going into the US game thinking a draw is sufficient.    

Iran vs USA odds are moving! Betting action has been moving the odds in Iran’s direction – the US went from -105 to win to +105 overnight. 

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USA vs Wales Best Betting Odds

Monday, November 28	USA vs Iran Betting Odds
USMNT:	+100
Iran:	+300
Draw:	+240
Total:	2.5 Goals +135 (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
Game Time:	2:00pm ET / 11:00am PT

USA vs Iran Prediction :  What’s Going to Happen?

So, we’re going to see a free-flowing and high-octane attacking game free of viewer frustration, right?  

No. Not at all.  Not unless both teams score early on. 

What we’re likely to see is the USMNT keep about 65% possession, with ample back passes and continued confusion as to how to put the ball into the back of the net or even create shots. Now, it’s always possible Berhalter will get the lineup right and the US will glow in attack, but there’s been little precedent to expect that. 

Iran will defend and counter and could very well score once or more.  The +300 line on Iran to win and +240 for a draw are mighty tempting.  And the odds are moving in that direction right now.  

This is going to be a tense game, and I suspect, a dirty game.  Fouls will abound – it’ll be interesting to see how the referee handles the initial 10 minutes – if cards start flowing early, this is very likely to be a game that doesn’t end 11 on 11. 

USA vs Iran Prediction: How the Heck Will the USMNT Score?

Well, there’s the problem and what makes a USA vs Iran prediction less focused on total goals scored.  Nobody has an answer for that yet.  Pulisic will try to dribble through multiple defenders unnecessarily, instead of making a simple pass.  Adams and Musah are excellent players, but at this stage in their careers have no goal-scoring threat in them.  

The US has been woeful at set pieces and neither Ream or Zimmerman have any prowess in scoring off of them anyways.  Again, complicating any USA vs Iran prediction for moneyline or total goals. 

So, we’re left with a Dest or Weah thunderbolt, a slice of Reyna magic, or a sneaky Brenden Aaronson goal (not a great scorer himself).  OR, maybe Sargent/Ferreira/Wright realize that strikers are supposed to score and actually take their chances. I do suspect the USMNT to score, but it’s going to be hard… unless something miraculous happens.  

USA: Predicted Lineup

Now, in an ideal world, the US would be able to find a way to put Adams, McKennie, Musah, Aaronson, Weah, Pulisic, Reyna, Ferreira (not that I think he’s great, but he’s a new option) on the field together.  

However, unless the US fields a 13 player starting lineup, which would be a bold strategy Cotton, that can’t happen.  

So, I imagine we’ll see something like this: 

Turner
Robinson Zimmerman Ream Dest

Musah Adams McKennie 

Pulisic Ferreira Weah

Now, if it were up to me, I’d drop Musah (I know he’s been good, but he has no goal-scoring threat in him) and I’d put Weah as striker. I’d also drop Ferreira and plug in Reyna.  I might even play a 3-4-3 and drop Zimmerman and plug in Aaronson at right mid.    

What Will Iran Do?

Well, that’s simple.  They’ll play a smooth attacking game with beautiful movement off the ball and rapid passing with a purpose! 

No, wait! That’s SPAIN.  My bad. 

Iran’s gonna park the bus and counterattack.  And they’re quite good at both.  Sardar Azmoun and Mehdi Taremi should worry any defense – if they both play (Azmoun may be injured), combine well on the counter, and take their chances… goals could come.  Iran vs USA controversy aside, Iran has a solid team. 

USA vs Iran Prediction: How’s The World Cup Going For Both?

Talk about a mixed bag. 

Iran started off the tournament with a mighty thud against England, doing their best Costa Rica vs Spain impression and losing 6-2.  

Then, they played quite well against Wales, more like how Iran played in World Cup qualifying and cups prior, and eked out a 2-0 win, with both goals coming in extra time. 

The USMNT started out flying, jumping to a 1-0 lead on a tasty Tim Weah goal and looked quite competent for 45 minutes.  Unfortunately, games are 90 (ok, more like 104 minutes with stoppage time this World Cup) long, and they simply didn’t show up in the 2nd half and limped to a 1-1 draw against a pretty bad Wales team.  After that, a serviceable, and at times quite excellent 0-0 draw against England served as a bit of a confidence booster.  

Ream and Adams and Turner and Musah have all been top performers for the US, which is great to see, but also pretty appalling in that they’re all..not..attackers.

Is Gregg Berhalter Still a Bad Coach?

Yes.  And that continues to be a problem.  A good showing against a good England team doesn’t forgive anything, and a lukewarm showing against a pretty bad Wales team helps less.  

Berhalter’s failings continue to be laid bare. 

First, his substitutes are continually made far too late to have any impact on the game.  His preference for his favorites is still awful.  Playing Reyna for 7 total minutes so far is criminal.  Putting Shaq Moore on the field is even more so. Aaronson still hasn’t seen significant minutes.   

Second, he’s been in charge for an insufferably long time and at no point has his team shown ANY ability to create shots.  They possess like mad until the final third, at which point we’re usually subjected to watching Pulisic put his head down and dribble into 8 defenders. 

Third, he has no ability to adjust.  Wales is a bad team.  The US took a deserved lead in the first half and then wilted for 45 minutes in the second half as Wales adjusted their plan.  That and the refusal to switch who takes set pieces (Pulisic is terrible at set pieces, that’s pretty obvious) and the plan on set pieces is very likely to be what sends the US out of the World Cup. 

USA vs Iran Prediction:  The Betting Picks

We gave the first two betting picks last night, but we’re tacking on a third to give you more options – take them as you will.  Take two team prop bets (pretty confident on these) and one individual prop.  The USMNT vs Iran should be a great game for prop betting. 

USA vs Iran Prediction #1:

So, what do you get when you have a counterattacking bus-parking team and a team that’s bad at creating good shots?  Corner kicks and lots of them, from both teams. 

USA vs Iran Betting Pick:  I love the Over 9.5 corners combined at +120 at PointsBet.   

USA vs Iran Prediction #2:

And remember when I suggested it’ll be a dirty game?  It definitely will have loads of fouls.  Now, we’ll see how the referee reacts to early fouls, but I expect to see fouls and cards galore.  For the 2nd USA vs Iran Betting Pick, I love the total cards over 5.5 at +120 at PointsBet. 

USA vs Iran Prediction #3:

Maybe it’s optimism, or maybe it’s that Pulisic will realize that he needs to shoot and will successfully dribble through defenders and have a break-out game when the stakes are high.  So, the player prop prediction is Christian Pulisic with 2 or more shots on goal at +175 at DraftKings.   

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Stoppage Time | 2022 World Cup Betting Preview

The 2022 World Cup carries on, after some fascinating games.  Going forwards, Which favorites will endure some trouble? Which darkhorses are ready to emerge? Join Carmine Bianco, Kevin Dolan, Pavlos Laguretos and Nick Borrman for Stoppage Time as we look at the World Cup from a variety of handicapping angles.

2022 World Cup Group Predictions

• Group A
• Group B
• Group C
• Group D
• Group E
• Group F
• Group G
• Group H

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