Villarreal vs Real Madrid Picks, Predictions and Odds Feb 12
Villarreal vs Real Madrid Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his Villarreal vs Real Madrid La Liga betting preview for Saturday, February 12. Madrid sits atop the league table while Villarreal looks to secure a European qualification spot.
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| Saturday, February 12 | La Liga Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Villarreal: | +160 |
| Real Madrid: | +170 |
| Draw: | +250 |
| Total: | 2.75 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 10:15am ET / 7:15am PT |
Villarreal vs Real Madrid Analysis
Villarreal has been on a nice run, winning six of their last eight La Liga matches, including a very good 2-0 road win at Betis last weekend to move into 6th in the table, the last European qualification spot available in La Liga.
During those last eight games, Villarreal have scored 22 goals, an average of 2.75 per game to move their season tally to 38 which is the third most in the league. Defensively they have kept four clean sheets during that same eight game span, which they have nine total on the season, and have allowed just 23 goals with only four teams conceding less.
In terms of xG (expected goals), Villarreal has been very good, generating the second-most per game at 1.82 while allowing the seventh-fewest xGA at 1.13, giving them the fourth-best differential in the league at +0.68. At home, their xG jumps all the way to 2.27 per game giving them the best differential in the league at +1.23 per game. They have also scored the most goals at home, a whopping 29 through 12 games, and as such, their games average the most goals at a combined 3.5 per match.
League-Leading Real Madrid
I guess you can’t say Real Madrid have been surging as they have been fantastic all year long. They have just two losses in La Liga this season, both on the road, while scoring the most goals, 48, and allowing the third-fewest at 20.
Even though both of their losses have come on the road, they are still the best road team in the league as they have earned 25 points in eight away games, dropping a total of just eight points. They are conceding more away from home though, allowing 12 goals in 11 games for an average of 1.1 per game compared to just 0.67 at home.
Statistically, Real Madrid also sit atop the table in many categories, creating the most xG per game at 1.99, with the highest differential at +0.91. They also generate both the most shots and shots on goal by a wide margin at 17.3 and 6.7, respectively, compared to the next closest team at 14.1 and 5.4 (Betis). Away from home, they also have the best xG differential per game at +0.78.
Villarreal vs Real Madrid Prediction
The first meeting between these teams ended in a goalless draw back in September with only a combined four shots on goal between the teams. However, that broke a run of seven straight matches in which both teams scored with six of those finishing over 2.5 goals. Additionally, each of the last five games in Villarreal have seen both teams score.
While normally a great betting strategy to employ is to fade teams the weekend before their Champions League matches, but with both teams playing in the round of 16 this week, there is no advantage either way. Instead, don’t look to choose a side and stick with the trends and expect to see some goals in this match.
Both Teams to Score on its own is priced a little higher than I would like to play, currently in the -170 range, while the total is set at 2.75. However, you can get a solid price by pairing both together with Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals at +105.
Interested in placing a bet on Saturday’s Villarreal vs Real Madrid showdown in La Liga? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
Soccer Betting 101
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Kelly Stewart, Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman share some of their favorite soccer betting tips.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features odds from a variety of domestic and offshore sports books. Track the moneylines and totals for all of this weekend’s international soccer matches, including this Villarreal vs Real Madrid clash in Spain, from your desktop or phone.
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