Wolfsburg vs Lille Picks and Odds | Champions League Match Day 6
Wolfsburg vs Lille Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Wednesday afternoon’s Wolfsburg vs Lille showdown on Match Day 6 of the UEFA Champions League Group Stage. All four teams in Group G are currently still alive with a chance to advance to the knockout round.
Stay on top of the latest Soccer updates direct from Las Vegas!
Wolfsburg vs Lille Predictions
- Wolfsburg +135
- Lille +215
- Draw +235
- Total: 2.5 Goals
Wolfsburg continue their freefall as they lost yet again over this past weekend, 0-3 at Mainz, to fall to 6-2-6 in the German Bundesliga with a -5 goal differential and now sit 8th in the table. That is now four straight winless games for Wolfsburg in which they have conceded at least two goals in each game. Going back further, since the Champions League group stage began back in mid-September, Wolfsburg have just three wins in their last 15 games as they are clearly struggling with managing both Champions League and Bundesliga duties.
However, the good news for them is that this group, arguably the weakest group in the Champions League, has been extremely volatile. Currently, all four teams are separated by just three points and each team controls their own destiny to qualify for the knockout stage.
For Lille, they have been coming on as of late, winning again this weekend 2-1 over Troyes to extend their unbeaten run to seven games. Opposite of Wolfsburg, Lille started the season in a bad way but have gotten better as the competition has increased.
Playing in Ligue 1 definitely helps as the overall competition is a slight step down from the Bundesliga and perhaps that is the reason we are seeing Lille handle the congested schedule much better than Wolfsburg. Regardless, the results are what they are and right now Lille is getting them while Wolfsburg is not.
Group G
The current table looks like this:
1. Lille 8 pts
2. Salzburg 7 pts
3. Sevilla 6 pts
4. Wolfsburg 5 pts
A draw is good enough here for Lille to earn their qualification in the knockout rounds and is an important understanding to have when looking to wager on this game. They are the reigning Ligue 1 champions because they have a very good defense and they know how to protect a lead or even grind out a draw when needed. In their five games so far, they have proven their defensive quality as they have allowed only three goals and have kept three clean sheets. Further, they have allowed an average of just 10.0 shots per game with only 3.0 on goal for a paltry total of just 0.97 xGA. They are not a high-scoring team by any means, but they don’t need to be when their defense is that strong. They also don’t need to be when one goal is more than likely all they need to be able to get themselves that one point to clinch their qualification.
Compare those numbers to Wolfsburg who have struggled much more so on defense in this group. In five games, they have allowed a much higher 1.74 xGA per game and more volume, allowing 13.6 shots with an alarming 5.4 shots on goal while offensively, are averaging a mere 6.6 total shots with 1.8 on goal. They have not generated double-digit shots in any of the group stage games and that is not a recipe for success against Lille’s defense.
Wolfsburg vs Lille Pick
Here’s the problem I have with backing Wolfsburg in this game. They must win this game to have a chance at qualifying. Needing to win a game with a defense you can’t trust is not a good position to be in. The longer the game stays at 0-0, the harder it will be for Wolfsburg to break down Lille, who have proven they can protect a lead, or in this example, a draw. So Wolfsburg will have to press. Pressing leads to more players up the field. Pressing leads to a higher backline. Pressing leaves you exposed to the counter attack and vulnerable to any mistake you make. That is not a position I would ever want to be in with a team that does not have a good defense.
On the flip side, if they do score first, I have absolutely no confidence they can protect that lead and I would imagine they would feel the same way and keep their foot on the pedal as one goal as unlikely to get the job done in this game.
If the double chance of +0.5 was priced at -110, this would likely be a Max Bet or at least a Best Bet, but as it stands at +0.25, it is still a solid play that we cash half our wager on a draw and the full wager if Lille walks away with the win. No matter, I just don’t see Wolfsburg getting the win here.
Enjoy the final group stage matches of the Champions League and Good Luck with your wagers!
Tuesday on WagerTalk Today:
⚽ 10am ET: Stoppage Time
🏒 11am ET: Puck Time
☕ 12pm ET: WagerTalk Today
🏀 1:45pm ET: NCAAB Tip-Off
🏀 4:15pm ET: NBA Tip-Off
🗣️ Evening: NFL Week 14 Panel Vids
📺 YouTube: https://t.co/R6HAcDOwWQ
📺 Twitch: https://t.co/FJVMFm1qti pic.twitter.com/r1oQYkMVZF— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) December 7, 2021
Stoppage Time | Champions League Match Day 6 Preview
The final match day of the 2021-22 UEFA Champions League group stage kicks off on Tuesday, December 7 as the top teams in Europe battle to stay alive in the world’s most prestigious club soccer competition. Join Carmine Bianco, Nick Borrman, Pavlos Laguretos and Kevin Dolan as we preview this week’s featured games from the Champions League: AC Milan vs Liverpool; FC Porto vs Atletico Madrid; Atalanta vs Villarreal; and Bayern Munich vs Barcelona.
Soccer Betting Guide
What’s the difference between the two-way and three-way line in soccer betting? What does the Asian handicap mean? If the game ends in a draw, do you get your money back? Check out our Soccer Betting Guide to become more familiar with the nuances of betting on soccer.
**************************************************
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!
