SMU vs Penn State Predictions and Preview | Top College Football Playoff Picks

Expert college football analyst Ron Marmalefsky looks at the College Football Playoff matchup of SMU vs Penn State before kickoff!

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College Football Playoff Overview

SMU started slowly, but then became mostly unstoppable, winning by margin.  They survived Duke despite a -6 turnover margin, but turnovers did them in in the ACC title game vs. Clemson. 

For at least five of the past seven seasons (and more), Penn State would have been squarely inside any 12-team playoff bracket. 

They once again fell to nemesis Ohio State, but their only other loss was in the Big Ten title game, which was highly competitive.  This is another intriguing matchup.

SMU Football Preview

Everything is great when SMU doesn’t go about beating itself.  Aside from turnovers, SMU amassed 1,027 penalty yards, which is absurd. 

QB Preston Stone lost his job, with Kevin Jennings hitting 66% for the year.  This is a step up from the AAC, but I still project Jennings at about 60% here, with one interception. 

RB Smith was a workhorse in ’24.  He ran 5.85 per carry.  This is not an easy task, as Penn State is efficient vs. the run and pass. I have him with 17 carries, for only in the low 70’s on rush yards.  I think his floor is three receptions. 

I like teams with either one elite WR target (a “man among boys” type in the college ranks), or having a bunch of WR/TE targets where a defense can’t just key on a couple of guys.  SMU has seven viable targets. 

If the game plan is efficient, I think they can find a matchup worth exploiting.  Maybe the move to the AAC wasn’t as massive a jump in scheduling as I thought it would be in August, but regardless, SMU’s run defense (2.95 per carry) and pass defense (56.3%) were impressive. 

Bowl teams averaged about 25 points per game on them (regulation) but only Clemson comes close to Penn State’s Power Number. 

The good news is that Clemson ran just 2.0 per carry on SMU, corrected for sacks.  The pass defense wasn’t a shutdown type vs. the more accurate teams on their schedule. 

I don’t think Penn State is a juggernaut offensively, but SMU will have its hands full.  I see this as meaning the SMU offense must avoid mistakes, to keep Penn State from getting in rhythm. Overall, SMU had a 40-15 sack ratio. 

Kicking was 23-31, which is maybe too many attempts.  Penn State is the type of team that can stop opposing teams in the red zone. 

Penn State Football Preview

QB Allar hit 69%, with a 21-7 ratio. Much like SMU’s QB, I project over 60%, but not to Allar’s typical numbers. 

This is the 3^rd straight season that RB’s Allen and Singleton have shared the workload.  They have been perhaps the most consistent duo over a long span of time as I’ve ever seen in the college game. 

If experience matters, they may exceed my combined projection of 26-120, with about five receptions.  If Penn State slows down the SMU offense, you can count on them grinding in the run game. 

TE Warren is elite, and my current #1 TE for the upcoming draft (top 15 grade).  He’s practically unstoppable, so SMU’s main task is to prevent splash plays. 

The rest of the pass catchers are decent, but nothing too special. This was your typical Penn State defense, despite realignment and a new coordinator. It’s hard to run on them, but good QB’s with good pass schemes occasionally get their way in the pass game, leading to points being scored. 

Taken another way, Penn State has a habit of beating teams they should beat, and James Franklin has a way of rubbing it in late in games when nothing is on the line. 

I’m really not sure if SMU’s Bennett is a “good” QB, but that will be found out in this spot.  Back to the offense. 

Their new offensive coordinator was, as expected, an upgrade. It led to a solid 3^rd down conversion rate. Kicking was average by their own standards. The sack ratio was 33-12.  RB Singleton is a threat in the return game (SMU 48% touchback rate).

SMU vs Penn State: Keys To The Game

SMU can not afford to beat itself, either with penalties, or with their occasional cluster of turnovers.  They need to find the right matchup to exploit offensively, while hoping their fine RB opens some holes. Penn State has to put pressure on QB Bennett. 

If they do, they win the turnover battle. If not, the variety of targets SMU has will be to their advantage.  Will another target emerge outside of TE Warren, or is he enough to do significant damage? 

Ultimately, this game may hinge a bit on turnovers (SMU) plus what SMU can accomplish in the red zone. On paper, that’s a Penn State advantage.

SMU vs Penn State Predictions: SMU +9 to +10

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