Argentina vs Croatia Prediction, Best Bets and Top Odds | Gargantuan Semifinal, Bold Prop Picks
Argentina vs Croatia Prediction & Betting Preview
Jump straight to the three betting picks.
Cagey cagey cagey. That’s the expectation for Argentina vs Brazil – a cagey match that can only be broken open by sheer genius. Luckily for the neutral viewer, both teams HAVE an absolute footballing genius – Messi for Argentina and Modric for Croatia.
Just like last game, the odds appear far too long against a Croatia draw or win. And look what happened there. +350 on Croatia winning is nuts… although that’s the REGULATION time odds. If the odds for Croatia advancing period were +350 that would be sheer insanity (they’re not – odds of Croatia advancing period are at +195). Which is still too long.
However, Argentina is a different team than Brazil. This is simply because Argentina has none of the frankly undeserved arrogance that Brazil shows.
Argentina is better coached, has smarter players, and understands game management – which is a stark contrast to a Brazilian team that only understands and excels at being chronically arrogant underachievers. So, while Brazil may be better at dancing after crushing bad teams, they have none of the brains or tactical nous that Argentina possesses.
So, there’s zero chance that Argentina underestimates Croatia – but there’s still a solid chance that the oddsmakers are doing so!
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Argentina vs Croatia Best Betting Odds
| Tuesday, December 13 | Argentina vs Croatia Betting Odds |
|---|---|
| Argentina: | -110 |
| Croatia: | +350 |
| Draw: | +240 |
| Total: | 2.5 Goals +145 (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 2:00pm ET / 11:00am PT |
Argentina vs Croatia Prediction: How’s The World Cup Going For Both?
Fantastic, right? They both made the semifinals!
Argentina started with a resounding thud, in one of the biggest World Cup upsets, dropping a 2-1 decision to Saudi Arabia. They quickly righted the ship and cruised to consecutive 2-0 victories over Mexico and Poland. Following a nervy 2-1 victory over Australia in the round of 16, Argentina won an even nervier penalty decision over Netherlands.
Some cracks appeared in Argentina’s defense in the Netherlands game, as they were destroyed by the enormous Wout Weghorst (who really should have started for the Netherlands). Granted, the 2nd goal from Weghorst was courtesy of one of the most impressive and ballsy set pieces you’ll ever see, but warning bells are ringing. Still, Argentina pulled out a calm victory on penalties.
Croatia, on the other hand, is being Croatia. They fall behind, they come back, they win. They go to penalties, they win. In the group stage, they snagged two reputable draws against an extremely good Morocco team and a vastly underachieving Belgian team. They also grabbed a commanding 4-1 victory over a pretty good Canada team.
In the knockout round, Croatia won two straight penalty shoot-outs, as they tend to do, winning against Japan and then highly arrogant (I mean, favored) Brazil.
Argentina vs Croatia Prediction : Can Argentina Break Down Croatia?
Well, Brazil couldn’t. And there’s no reason to think Argentina has a more potent attack than Brazil. A couple of suspensions for Argentina due to yellow card accumulation isn’t going help, with both Acuna and Montiel out.
So, how will Argentina break down Croatia’s midfield and defense? Well, they probably won’t. Talent-wise, the teams have very little separating them – and you can expect a midfield wash. The only way Argentina breaks down Croatia successfully is a bit of Messi magic or a Croatian mistake leading to an early goal. If that early goal happens, this game could be blown wide open.
Will Croatia Break Down Argentina?
As far as Croatia breaking down Argentina, that’s a job for Modric. If anyone can blow through the center of the Argentine midfield, it’s Modric. You may see more darting dribbles through the middle of the field and spraying out wide for crosses from Croatia than you expect. Although, Croatia breaking down Argentina’s defense… that’s another matter.
That said, if Petkovic gets the start and Perisic plays more centrally – who would you favor – will Croatia win crosses and create dangerous shots or will the Argentine defense shut down crossing opportunities period or win all the balls in the air? I’d choose the Croatians.
Argentina vs Croatia Prediction: Can Anyone Score?
Probably, yes. Can they score MANY goals? No. Or, as this has been a strange World Cup, let’s avoid the flat-out no and go with “highly unlikely”.
When you have a genius like Messi and a pretty dynamic up-and-comer like MacAllister, the odds are decent Argentina can score, even against an incredibly organized Croatian midfield and defense and an absolutely legendary World Cup performance by Livakovic.
That said, how much can Di Maria play? If he’s ready to go a full 90 (and some extra time), or even 45 and a shootout, that could provide a great boost for the attacking possibilities of Argentina. Argentina still should be able to score at least once in regulation/extra time – they put an enormous number of shots on goal against Poland and a respectable number against Netherlands and Saudi Arabia.
So, then, can Croatia score? Yeah, if they NEED to. And if they need to, they probably will. That’s just the way this Croatian team works.
If Croatia plays a bit more attacking than they did against Brazil (which… we’ll see if that happens), they have the personnel and good finishers in Perisic, Petkovic, Mighty Modric, and Kramaric to nick a goal. Maybe even two if Perisic does indeed end up getting space to cross freely.
Argentina vs Croatia Predictions: The Betting Picks
This has not been an easy World Cup to predict. On paper, this game should be easier than most other games to date. One *should* be expecting a tight, defensive struggle, with both teams being organized and technically skilled, but also not particularly good at scoring goals against each other.
So, we’ll stick with that narrative, and make some varied picks – one moneyline pick, one team prop, and two player props.
Argentina vs Croatia Prediction #1:
So, the saying used to be along the lines of two teams play soccer for 90 minutes and then the Germans win.
We should probably change that to, two teams play soccer for 120 minutes and a shoot-out and then Croatia wins.
This Croatia team has got grit to spare. They simply find a way. And I think they’ll continue to do so, I expect them to stifle Argentina, probably roll into extra time at a 1-1 score, and then win on penalties.
Betting Pick #1 : So, for the 1st Argentina vs Croatia betting pick, I like Croatia to Advance at DraftKings at +195.
Argentina vs Croatia Prediction #2:
Ok, so these teams will be defensive, but it looks like some of the team props lines are expecting them both to sit down in the middle and play chess.
There’s gonna be SOME attacking going on! It’s not going to be as boring as expected.
Betting Pick #2: For the 2nd Argentina vs Croatia Betting Pick, I’m giving the Croatia over +3.5 corners in regulation at BetMGM at +125 a try. Surely, Croatia can scrounge up 4 corners….
Argentina vs Croatia Prediction #3: The Player Prop Parlay
Perisic has been absolutely superb for Croatia throughout the tournament – he’s been deployed a bit to the left side – more than expected – and has thrived crossing the ball. I suspect Argentina will cut of the wide play a bit, pushing him a bit more centrally. This should free him up to take a shot or two.
On the other side, there’s this guy named Messi, who’s probably going to be a decent player one day – and we should all watch his career with interest.
Har har. The best player on Earth, many years running, Messi is always a fairly good bet to score a goal.
So, for the player props, I’ve got two I’m placing small wagers on.
Betting Pick #3: I’m having some fun with a small bet on Perisic at +1.5 shots on goal at +900 at BetMGM. And, Messi scoring an anytime goal at BetMGM at +130.
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Stoppage Time | 2022 World Cup Betting Preview
The 2022 World Cup carries on, after some fascinating games. Going forwards, Which favorites will endure some trouble? Which darkhorses are ready to emerge? Join Carmine Bianco, Kevin Dolan, Pavlos Laguretos and Nick Borrman for Stoppage Time as we look at the World Cup from a variety of handicapping angles.
2022 World Cup Group Predictions
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