Astros (4:05PM ET MLB Network) – Split in MLB to start the week, we are sitting on a good number already in the WNBA tonight so let’s get it started early on Wednesday and go big with a 5% MAX BET when the Houston Astros look to avoid a sweep against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. 

I have to take a shot at this matchup here.  On one side you have Spencer Arrighetti, he was thrown into the fire early this season as a rookie and his full season numbers reflect those growing pains but he’s been outstanding of late including six shutout innings in a win over the Orioles in his most recent start.  Arrighetti has a 13 strikeout performance against the Red Sox and a 12 strikeout outing against the Rays in what’s been a huge August for Arrighetti and the Phillies haven’t seen him at all so a good chance he has them off balance early here.  On the other side it’s Taijuan Walker, he has a 9.26 ERA in three starts since coming off the IL allowing 12 runs and five home runs in 11.2 innings.  The Phillies have lost all three of Walker’s starts and the Astros should find success as a number of Astros players have had exposure to Walker and he’s got a 5.82 ERA in his last five starts against Houston.  The Astros have lost six of their past eight games due to the bats going cold as Houston is averaging just 3.4 runs per game in that span.  Houston hasn’t been able to get the timely hit of late but Walker has done nothing but give up hits in just about every scenario which should help the Astros bats wake up and give Houston the upper hand here. 

Walker came into 2024 hurt and his whiff % was down last year so I don’t think this is a scenario where Walker bounces back.  Walker just turned 32 and it’s highly possible his skill set is on a natural decline so I think we have to take our shot at playing against him here as there won’t be many more chances to do so.  I think by next season Arrighetti is a front line starter, he’s someone I thought had excellent swing and miss stuff at AAA and at that level he knew he could throw pitches for balls and guys would swing at it.  Arrighetti struggled with being forced to throw strikes early in his MLB career but he’s figured out how to attack the zone and mix in a breaking ball for a ball and his sweeper and curveball have been virtually unhittable this month.  Arrighetti has struck out 36 of the 94 batters he’s faced so far in August which should neutralize a Phillies lineup that’s started to hit the last few games.  The Astros let Caleb Ferguson “mop up” in yesterday’s 5-0 loss which means Houston will have all of their top bullpen arms behind Arrighetti here. 

Prior to the past couple days Houston had been on a monster run on the road and at 35-33 they are one of the better road teams in baseball this season. I think the Astros have a bigger edge here than the bookmakers suggest with this price and I’m confident Arrighetti gets it done for us here.  Play on Astros -107 for 5% (or 5 units)