Rockies (8:40PM ET MASN2, MLB.TV) – LG Twins get Friday started with a winner and I’ll head back to the MLB diamond for another 5% MAX BET when the Colorado Rockies kick off a three game set with the Baltimore Orioles at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado.

Very similar rationale here that produced a winner for us backing the Rockies on Monday night.  The Rockies recently added a couple of stud relievers, I don’t think it’s priced into the number at all so I came into this week looking for good spots to back the Rockies when the bullpen lines up.  I think we get one of those good spots here, the two relievers I want action on are Angel Chivilli and Luis Peralta and neither have pitched since 8/27.  Austin Gomber has been one of the Rockies better starting pitchers (1.29 WHIP) so I think if Gomber can get the ball to the bullpen with a lead or in a one run game we end up with a great chance to cash here. Baltimore has big time issues, the Orioles have lost three of four and are now 12-14 in the month of August with a team ERA near 5.  Albert Suarez has been way better than I ever expected he could be this season but I’m willing to oppose him as I’ve found he struggles when he really has to work (either quickly or with guys on base) and I’m hoping he experiences some quick fatigue from the altitude here.  Even if Suarez is good if he’s out in the 4th or 5th he exposes an Orioles bullpen that’s been one of the worst units in the league in recent weeks.  I’m going to dive in deeper but that alone is enough to have me interested in a run head start with the Rockies here.

I understand the hesitation in backing Colorado so I’m going to spell out how I think the pitching sets up and I think you will see how favorable this is for the Rockies.  We basically need Gomber to match Suarez, he doesn’t have to be perfect but if he’s anything like he’s been lately I feel like he gets the ball to the bullpen in, at worst, a one run game.  Gomber has made it 6+ in four of his last five starts if you throw out the one dud against the Mets it’s just nine earned runs in 26 innings for Gomber.  I expect the Rockies to have to piece together 3-4 innings with the bullpen and there’s a good chance it’s the trio of Chivilli, Peralta and Tyler Kinley and I’m willing to go to battle with that here. Kinley was on a huge run until he blew a save against the Marlins earlier this week but he’s my least favorite of the three and I think he probably bounces back with a respectable outing.  Chivilli has the most upside, his stuff is nasty and since being recalled from Albuquerque at the beginning of August he has a 2.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP for the Rockies this month.  My favorite of the trio is Luis Peralta, he was recently acquired by Colorado in a trade with the Pirates and has put up eye popping numbers in MILB this season. Peralta flew through four levels of baseball and posted a ridiculous 0.94 ERA/0.97 WHIP with 75 strikeouts in 47.2 innings in 32 minor league outings this season.  Peralta has pitched twice since being called up last weekend retiring all five Yankees hitters he faced in the Bronx and firing a clean inning allowing a hit that did zero damage against the Marlins.  Peralta mixes it up including a fastball that sits 96/97 and the Orioles have struggled with high velo southpaws this season. 

Suarez had three scoreless outings but gave up a lot of contact last time out against the Astros which leads me to believe he might be building toward a bad start.  Suarez gave up two home runs against Houston and was also beat by the longball during his bad run toward the end of July which he will be vulnerable to in the thin Denver air at Coors Field here.  Colorado has significantly better offensive numbers at home this season and their lineup got a boost this week getting Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle back. This is an incredible spot for a young Rockies team to have some success, I think Colorado wins but I’ll gladly take the +1.5 cushion at this price here.  Play on Rockies +1.5 (-118) for 5% (or 5 units)