I’m going to lock this in.  Tarleton State will be without their starting quarterback for a month and the Texans gained just 16 yards and were shut out in the second half when he went out last week.

By no means am I high on Baylor this season but the Bears still represent a MASSIVE step up in class from McNeese State and they can't afford to “play with their food” here after losing the season opener as a similarly large favorite to Texas State last season.

I also think it's worth pointing out the money that went against Tarleton State last week, the number moved 3+ points against the Texans on gameday and McNeese State covered all numbers easily.  Tarleton State is a team I've followed closely the past year or so since I have a friend close to the program and what I've gathered following them through the summer is the Texans are probably a middling team like they were last year.

That all changes without Vic Gabalis, I think there's a sizeable drop from him to QB2 and I think the focus for Tarleton will now be to go to Waco to pick up the paycheck and start to look ahead to the Houston Christian game (which is far more meaningful game for Tarleton anyway since they were never winning here).

I would have liked Baylor to win by 30+ regardless, now without Gabalis I don't see any way this game doesn't get out of hand.

Play on Baylor -27.5 (-115) for 4% (or 4 units)