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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(911) Minnesota Twins at (912) Tampa Bay Rays

Event:
(911) Minnesota Twins at (912) Tampa Bay Rays
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
September 2, 2024 6PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-105
Play:
4% – Minnesota Twins -105 S Woods Richardson (RHP), Z Littell (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

I like some of the roster moves Minnesota made yesterday that I think will help them get out of their funk going forward.  I also think bouncing back and taking two of three from the Jays gives the Twins the momentum they have been lacking since the Rangers series.

Brooks Lee is a stud, I thought he would have been back up for the Braves series but the Twins kept him with St Paul to start the week and that was probably a mistake as Lee could have helped the Twins avoid a sweep in that series.  Lee was finally recalled and in the lineup yesterday where he went 1 for 4 and expect him in the lineup giving the Twins another lefty bat here.

I think the Twins will use Louis Varland in middle relief which is Minnesota's weakness right now.  I read Minnesota might have used him after Ober yesterday but Ober pitched deep and they didn't need him so good chance we see Varland as the bridge here.

Jhoan Duran had a relatively stress free 13 pitch save while I think the Twins would still go back to Jax if needed.  I love SWR ( will elaborate in the full write up) so it al lines up for me to back the Twins against a Rays side that is now out of the race and will likely play the youngsters to finish out the string.

Additional Analysis: I have a few plays to get analysis in for now so I'll just expand upon my thoughts above here.  Royce Lewis winning the game with a HR yesterday was huge, he's the catalyst for this Twins offense and he had been slumping prior to that hit. 

The final thing I wanted to point out is Zack Littell coming off the IL.  Littell had a 1.19 ERA in four starts prior to his IL stint but I'm not sure it's a given he picks up where he left off.  Littell was on the IL with shoulder fatigue, he's logged a career high 129.2 innings so far and he was experiencing a velo dip on all of his pitches prior to hitting the IL.  The extra time off could fix that but there's also a possibility it doesn't based on the fact Littell has thrown so many innings (relative to what he's done in past years) this season.  

Even if Minnesota decides to hold off Varland to use as a starter on Wednesday or behind Festa tomorrow I still like how this sets up for Minnesota here.  SWR  to Varland? to Jax to Duran.  Should be a recipe for a Twins win.

Play on Twins -105 for 4% (or 4 units)

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