Marlins (6:40PM ET BSFL, MASN, MLB.TV) – Twins get it done to cash our only bet for Monday and we add two winners in KBO on Tuesday morning to make it FOUR wins in a row.  Let’s head back to MLB to press this run and look to make it FIVE STRAIGHT with a 5% MAX BET when the Washington Nationals hit the road for a brief two game set with the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida. 

The way this Marlins lineup sets up now should be extremely tough on left-handed pitching so I love this spot to back the Marlins against a southpaw that’s likely nearing the end of his career.  Patrick Corbin is one of my favorite pitchers, he’s from Central NY and it’s been an absolute joy to watch him compete at the highest level over the years but he’s probably hanging it up after this season.  Corbin has had an ERA close to 6 and a WHIP in the 1.5/1.6 range going on FOUR seasons now and he’s really just in the rotation to eat innings and mentor this crop of young pitchers the Nationals now have at the big league level. Corbin will toss the occasional gem, because that’s what elite pitchers do even when their skill set is diminished, but he’s now done it in back to back games and I’ll be shocked if he’s got a third straight quality start in him.  It’s also more likely that a 2x All-Star and World Series Champion like Corbin gets up for games like Yankees at home (his most recent start) so I think the lack of energy in loanDepot Park might actually work to Corbin’s disadvantage here. Corbin leads the National League with 12 losses this season, since the start of 2021 no pitcher has lost more decisions than Corbin and he’s got 19 more losses than the next guy in that span.  Corbin will have the occasional “Toby Keith” (As good once as I ever was) start but he’s not going to string those together and I think the Marlins get to him here. 

Miami is starting to promote all of their young talent and we should see a bunch of it on display here.  Guys like Jonah Bride, Xavier Edwards, Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers have already made this a more palatable lineup while former 3rd overall pick Max Meyer will get the ball for the home team tonight.  The Marlins really screwed Meyer this year, they wanted to play the service time manipulation game with Meyer because the Marlins knew they would be bad and I think it messed with the nice momentum Meyer had to start the season.  The Marlins gave some nonsense excuse about wanting Meyer to work on certain pitches but the reality is Meyer was relegated to AAA because the club wanted control over him for another year.  Meyer hasn’t found his form since being recalled but he had six strikeouts in five innings against the Rockies last week and it was really the four walks that did him in.  That game was also at Coors Field where the Rockies seem to hit everything so I think coming back home to face a pedestrian Nationals lineup is a far more manageable task here.  Meyer was great in his last home start, two earned runs over six innings against a red hot Cubs team, so for me it’s enough reason to be optimistic on Meyer having a strong September.  Meyer will be 26 to start next season so it’s not like he has all sorts of time, I think it’s imperative he has a strong September to lock down a rotation spot to begin next season and I think it starts with a win over the Nationals here. 

Neither bullpen is particularly great right now so at the back end of this one I’d rather have the home team with some momentum which is what the Marlins are right now.  This is a very different group than the Marlins team that lost all those games before the All-Star Break and all of the young talent the Marlins accumulated at the deadline (most notably Stowers and Norby) are making the Marlins a better team. Miami is 5-3 in their last eight games and these two teams haven’t played since mid-June so I think THIS Marlins team might catch the Nationals off guard.  I think this Marlins lineup handles Corbin and it all translates to a series opening win for the home team.  Play on Marlins -112 for 5% (or 5 units)