Twins (6:50PM ET BSN, SUN, MLB.TV) – Marlins fall short to cost us the sweep but it’s still a 2-1 Tuesday and back to back winning days.  No KBO this morning so it’s up to MLB to make us a winner three days in a row and I’ll head back to the Sunshine State where the Minnesota Twins take on the Tampa Bay Rays in the third game of a four game set at Tropicana Field in St Petersburg, Florida.

I feel like I’ve had a great read on this series so far with a 4% client win on the Twins on Monday and a show best bet with the Rays on First Pitch yesterday so I’ll stay here for another client move today.  We didn’t get the Louis Varland relief appearance on Monday like I thought we might but that’s because Minnesota held him back to use him in a bulk innings role here.  That’s exactly what I want to “BET ON” as I thought calling up Varland would help solve the issue the Twins have had with middle relief.  The Twins will start Ronny Henriquez here (irrelevant, he will probably get one inning and probably fine) and then go Varland presumably for as long as he can go. I’m good with that, Varland is someone I was high on entering the season but he got roughed up by a few very good lineups and sent back to AAA.  He struggled with the demotion but since has been solid in St Paul with a 1.93 ERA and 10.7 K/9 in his last six AAA starts and a 3.60 ERA over his last 20 innings with the Twins.  Minnesota trailed for the majority of the game last night so they were able to rest Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran who will be in for the big spots here.  Minnesota also still has Zebby Matthews who might be better served out of the bullpen for now at the big league level so some better options to fill the middle innings tonight than the Twins have had in recent weeks. 

Tampa Bay will try to do something similar, but it sets up far worse for the Rays in tonight’s game.  Cole Sulser will get the start but all that means is one time through or until Sulser gets into trouble.  After Sulser it’s likely Tyler Alexander who has become a bulk innings regular for the Rays but has also gotten worse in this role as the season has gone on.  Alexander was roughed up by a terrible Seattle lineup in his most recent outing and has given up an outrageous 20 home runs in 85 innings so far this year!  Alexander has one of the highest HR/9 in Major League Baseball this season which doesn’t bode well for him against a Twins lineup that’s currently 10th in MLB in home runs.  If Alexander serves up a couple of deep balls I think Minnesota ends up in the driver’s seat here.

I think this game plays out a lot like Monday’s where Minnesota does enough to get the ball to Jax and Duran.  Right now that’s one of the better “One-Two” bullpen punches in the game and I’m willing to go down swinging with those two against a Rays lineup that simply isn’t that good and hasn’t been all season.  Play on Twins -108 for 4% (or 4 units)