Something that's absolutely been killing Nats pitching is the fact that injuries (and poor planning) have left the Nats with a starting rotation of many very similar LHP.

I'm sure the plan was to have guys like Josiah Gray and Trevor Williams breaking up the lefties in the rotation but both have been hurt which has caused guys like Patrick Corbin, MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz to follow one anothe in the rotation.

I think this has really hurt all of them, there's been scenarios where three will pitch in a series so if you are up last the opponent has had a look at something very similar already.  The fact this is a new series and RHP Jake Irvin pitched last night means DJ Herz should actually have a chance here.  

Since being recalled, Herz has followed Irvin in the rotation and (shocker!), Herz has been much better.  Herz has solid swing and miss stuff and, now that teams aren't getting to see a similar LHP the day before, Herz has allowed two runs or less in seven of his last 8 starts.  Even last time out when Herz gave up four runs to the Cubs he was competitive and kept his team in the game (against a Cubs team that has the best record in MLB since July 31st). I expect him to do the same against the lowly Pirates here.  

The Pirates have won three of four but this was never a playoff team (despite that narrative being floated out there) and I still think the Pirates get more market love than they should.  Luis Ortiz is having a career year in the Pirates rotation but he comes in off back to back scoreless outings despite struggling with command last time out against the Guardians and I think he could be building to a bad start which will hopefully come here.

From an upside standpoint I think the Nationals lineup with guys like Dylan Crews, James Wood, Andres Chaparro and Jose Tena is brimming with potential.  The ceiling is higher for the Nats right now (on days where Paul Skenes isn't pitching) and I think this is a solid bet getting some slight plus money with a team I make a small favorite here.

Play on Nationals +101 for 4% (or 4 units)