Panthers (1PM ET FOX) – Let’s go double barrel in the early NFL window on Sunday and head to the Bayou where the New Orleans Saints take on the Carolina Panthers at Caesar’s Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

I watched pretty much every snap of the Saints preseason, and I now officially have my concerns with this New Orleans team.  The tackling in the preseason, even from the starting defense, was atrocious and the Saints have some glaring issues on the offensive line that the Panthers should find ways to exploit here.  I’ve always been a Derek Carr supporter but Ryan Ramczyk out for the year and some inexperience protecting for him I could see Carr struggling with having to get rid of the ball quickly and trying to force it to guys that aren’t open.  Carr can be an elite passer when he’s “on” but he’s never been overly mobile so I could see a scenario where he has to live checking the ball down to Alvin Kamara or one of the Tight Ends and, while that can work, it also makes for a lack of explosiveness which might make it difficult for the Saints to pull away by margin here. On the other side I think Carolina has improved, I’m still not fully sold on Bryce Young but with another year under his belt and an improved blocking unit I think the Panthers might actually be able to move the ball this season.  Young has a new coach in Dave Canales who was a big reason for Baker Mayfield’s resurgence last season so I’m hoping that Canales and notable improvements at the skill positions gives Young what he needs to be successful here.  Regardless, when you look at these two teams I think at worst they are equals so I’ll take what should be a hungry Panthers side catching a few points here.

The Saints have been awful covering the number as favorites (7-15 since the beginning of the 2022 season) so if Carolina can realize any upside I think the Panthers cover and probably win here.  I know there was backups sprinkled in but I couldn’t believe how many tackles the Saints missed in those second two preseason games (when starters actually played) and that’s going to be an issue against Chuba Hubbard who should be able to run the ball behind an improved Panthers offensive line.  For as much as I’ve liked Carr over the year’s I’ve also watched him a ton and know he struggles big time when forced to move around in the pocket.  Carr can win checking it down (we saw him turn Darren Waller into an All-Pro Tight End) and he can make all the throws when he has pass protection but the Panthers have some upside in their front seven which could make for a long day for Carr if they can get home on pass rushes and blitzes.  Carr’s “safety valve” Alvin Kamara, is going to be far less lethal if the Saints can’t block for him which is shaping up to be the case here.  New Orleans has young tackles that have upside and will likely improve but here it’s going to be tough against a division opponent in the Panthers who probably have a good idea of how to attack the Saints after multiple meetings last season.  I’m not saying Dennis Allen and the Saints can’t/won’t figure out how to have Carr get rid of the ball or how to free up Chris Olave downfield but it’s unlikely to happen Week 1 especially now that these players don’t get as many reps in the preseason. There was also a scenario Week 2 of the preseason where the 49ers backed out of joint practices so it was even less “live” work for the Saints first teamers and I think it shows in the season opener here. 

Carolina went 2-15 last season, they fired a first year head coach before the season was over and it was really just more fallout from the failed Matt Rhule era in Charlotte.  I’m not saying Canales comes in and turns things around right away but it does look like he’s got a greater chance of success than the last regime and I’ll probably take a few shots in the early going with Carolina until the market catches up.  Play on Panthers +4 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)