Red Sox (7:10PM ET MASN, NESN, MLB.TV) – A’s couldn’t hit Ty Madden which was expected after the way the Titans game went for a forgettable Sunday. We are hitting the home stretch on the bases and have made progress over the summer with a net +29.35 units since 6/1 as we look to finish strong kicking off the new week with the Boston Red Sox as they take on the Baltimore Orioles in the first of three at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.

If you have listened to my analysis on a regular basis over the past few months you know the Orioles are a fade for me and one of the guys specifically on my radar to play against is Cade Povich who gets the ball for the visitors tonight. Let’s start with the Orioles in general, this is a team that’s been playing .500 ball going on a few months now and is largely inflated in the market by preseason expectations and a hot start. Baltimore has dropped three of four to fall to 24-24 since the All-Star Break with guys like Adley Rutschman and Colton Cowser slumping while Jackson Holliday is still below the Mendoza Line since being recalled from AAA.  You will hear the big media outlets point out that Baltimore is 7-3 against the Red Sox this season but five of the wins came in April/May when the Orioles were simply a different team.  In addition to the Orioles being worse now, the Red Sox now represent a step up in competition as Baltimore’s last three series have come against the Rockies, White Sox and Rays.  The Red Sox lost some games to contenders like the Diamondbacks, Tigers and Mets recently but took two of three from the White Sox over the weekend and are still a fringe playoff team just four games back of a Wild Card spot.  It’s “do or die” right now for the Red Sox, I expect Fenway Park to have a postseason feel over the next few days and I think the Sox are able to ride that to victory here. 

Let’s now talk about Povich, if you recall we played against him in his big-league debut and cashed and he’s been on my radar as a fade since.  Povich was sent back to AAA after getting blown up by the A’s but pitched good enough in the minors to make me weary of fading him once recalled.  Now that I’ve had a chance to watch a couple of his starts the same issues that made him a fade for me earlier this season are still there.  Povich has a ton of potential but right now he throws six pitches with only two of them being competitive at this level.  When he’s got batters confused he can generate swing and miss with solid location on his fastball and good differential on his curve but he’s not that difficult to figure out.  Terrible lineups like the White Sox have struggled with him, as did the Red Sox the first time around but elite teams like the Astros and Dodgers had him pegged quickly and responded with plenty of hard contact.  The reason I think the Red Sox figure him out here is they just saw him a couple weeks ago so it's less likely Red Sox hitters are off balance from the start.  Povich has also struggled on the road, getting blown up by the Dodgers and A’s to the tune of a 12.56 road ERA.  Fenway Park is a tough place for someone who hasn’t been there before so I wouldn’t rule out another blowup here. 

Brayan Bello gets the ball for the Red Sox, he’s someone I’ve been able to stomach backing and I think at worse he gives us a professional effort here. Bello has a 2.76 ERA in three starts against Baltimore this season and the Orioles collective approach at the plate continues to get worse so I won’t be surprised if Bello has continued success here. Boston screwed up by relying on Zack Kelly yesterday but the good news is Kenley Jansen is available in high leverage here.  Chris Martin also missed yesterday’s game due to illness but reports are he’s feeling better so the bullpen sets up more favorably for the Red Sox tonight.  I love how the spot sets up for the Red Sox and I’m willing to play against Povich so no brainer for me to jump in with the Sox at home at this price.  Play on Red Sox -117 for 4% (or 4 units)