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Missouri (12:45PM ET SEC Network) – The ACC will be where I’m most involved this CFB season, we swept 2-0 last week in our ACC plays with Syracuse and Cal both getting it done and here we will fade an ACC side when the #24 Boston College Eagles hit the road to battle the #6 Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri.

I did a video earlier today in support of the OVER for this game, I still expect points, but I think the higher probably here is that Missouri scores most of them and pulls away to win by at least three scores.  Missouri likely won’t shut out a third straight opponent, Boston College is far more capable offensively than the likes of Murray State and Buffalo but it’s still an elite Missouri defense that should take the Eagles out of their game.  Boston College wants to play through quarterback Thomas Castellanos but has the most success when he’s able to run the ball and he’s likely not going to be able to do that against this Missouri defense.  Castellanos was a turnover machine at times last season and the only reason he hasn’t turned it over this season is he’s played what we now know to be a lackluster Florida State team and FCS Duquesne.  I’ll be shocked if Castellanos doesn’t have a couple of turnovers in this game once the run doesn’t work and he’s forced to throw into this Missouri defense.  Mizzou should end up with a short field on a couple of occasions in this one and if they can pay it off I expect them to go up by multiple scores here. 

Something I didn’t really mention during my video breakdown of the over that I think is extremely important is the likelihood Missouri hasn’t really shown much this season.  Missouri played an FCS opponent where they were favored by -50 and followed that up with a completely inept Buffalo side that couldn’t score.  What that means is Missouri has been able to save the entirely of the playbook and I think Missouri is more likely to “pull out the stops” here against a ranked opponent than they would be to “save” anything for Vanderbilt. Suddenly this is a big game, Missouri can knock off another ranked team so I wouldn’t be surprised if Eli Drinkwitz added a few new wrinkles to the Missouri offense.  Drinkwitz also reported that all of his questionable players are healthy so Missouri should have the full menu to choose from here.

This is equally a difficult spot for Boston College who went on the road to upset Florida State and is now back on the road for their third game in three weeks in another extremely difficult road spot.  If Boston College is going to prioritize one of the next two games it’s going to be the Michigan State game at home in prime time which is notable because this could be a scenario where Boston College folds in the second half and starts to look ahead toward next week.  That’s sort of how I see this game going, I think Missouri’s defense will overwhelm Castellanos to the point where he makes a mistake or two and allows Missouri to take a lead. I think Missouri’s defense will be good enough to keep Boston College under wraps though I won’t be surprised if Castellanos has some success if Missouri is up big and goes into a prevent of sorts. I’ve got this one in the Missouri by 17-20 range (which is fine that covers this number) but I think the ceiling is higher for Missouri here.  I think there’s far more likelihood of Missouri blowing this one open than there is Boston College hanging for 60 minutes so I’ll lay the -16.5 (which I think could end up being a good number by Saturday) and hope I’m on the right side of the hook.  Play on Missouri -16.5 for 4% (or 4 units)