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Mariners (9:40PM ET YES, ROOTNW, MLB.TV) – Day off on Monday after a strong overall week (8-5 +11.2 UNITS) and I’ll look to kick off the new week with another 5% MAX winner (won 5% with UCF on Saturday) when the Seattle Mariners take on the New York Yankees in the first game of a three game set at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. 

After watching Seattle dispose of the Rangers the last few days I’m officially back “IN” on the Mariners having a chance this season.  There was a time a few months ago where I made a strong case for Seattle based on the strength of their pitching staff top to bottom. Seattle has more elite arms than just about any team in baseball right now and if the Mariners can find a way to generate some offense (like they did this past weekend) I would suggest writing them off at your own peril.  The Yankees aren’t a team I’m going out of my way to play against but historically it’s been profitable playing against the Yankees in the series following the Red Sox. Back in June the Yankees dropped two of three at home against the Orioles following a trip to Fenway Park and did the same (lost two of three) after a home series with Boston to the Rays at Tropicana Field.  The Yankees did sweep the Phillies following the most recent Red Sox series but that was a high profile trip to Citizens Bank Park where the “letdown” came the following home stand going 3-3 against the lowly Jays and Angels.  The Mariners aren’t exactly a high profile team and the Yankees (while the AL East is still in play) will make the playoffs so I can see this trip to PNW being more of a nuisance for the Yanks than anything. 

Let’s start with the Yankees and lets work back to front as we look at the pitching for these two teams.  Both teams had a day off and both will have their high leverage bullpen arms available but the Yankees have logged 38.2 relief innings their past 10 games (week and a half or so) with a 1.16 ERA so I’m wondering if fatigue and simply guys due to give up a run or two ends up playing here.   I also wonder if the Mariners get to Luis Gil as they saw the absolute best version of Gil when he fired 6.1 innings of shutout one hit ball against Seattle in the Bronx back in May.  Since then Gil came back to Earth (blown up in three straight starts to close 1st half) and has dealt with a back strain that landed him on the IL.  Gil has been decent in his last couple starts against the Cubs and Royals but it’s worth noting Gil experienced a velocity dip on his fastball against the Cubs and is in uncharted territory in terms of innings pitched so I expect the Yankees to be cautious here.  Having Gil healthy for the postseason is imperative for the Yankees as the upside he has when he’s good far outweighs the Yankees need for him to pitch deep (or go all out) here.  Gil’s biggest issue right now is command as his 12.3% walk rate is the highest in MLB for pitchers that have thrown 100 or more innings.  Seattle’s biggest deficiency is offense so you simply can’t give a team like the Mariners free baserunners and it’s a given Gil will issue a couple of free passes here. 

After this weekend it’s “game on” for Seattle who enter play two games behind the Twins for the final Wild Card spot.  Minnesota also holds the tiebreaker which means Seattle will have to finish a game ahead of the Twins making every game a playoff game the rest of the way for the Mariners.  With the Yankees coming to town I expect this to be a playoff atmosphere in Seattle and I think the Mariners can ride that wave entering play having won 8 of their past 11 games.  I’m hoping the ballpark energy leads to some offense for Seattle (like it did this past weekend) and I don’t think the Mariners will need much with another one of their stud starters on the mound in Bryan Woo.  I love this matchup for Woo because he excels at limiting the two things the Yankees do best which is draw walks and hit home runs.  Woo has a MLB best 2.5% walk rate and has given up just 11 home runs across his 19 starts this season. This Yankees offense is heavily predicated on the long ball but Woo has been tough to take deep and T-Mobile is one of the more forgiving fly ball parks in baseball so I think this sets up for Woo to have continued success here.  Woo has faced the Yankees twice, he’s accumulated 11.1 innings and hasn’t allowed a run.  Knowing Seattle has all of their best bullpen arms available I will take my chances with Woo and the top relievers while getting a plus price in what feels like a do-or-die spot for the Mariners at home here.  Play on Mariners +103 for 5% (or 5 units)