Nationals (1:05PM ET BSKC, NBCSCH, MLB.TV) – Mariners get it done, Fever gets it done, SSG gets it done and suddenly we are rolling.  I’m 9-3 in my last 12 MLB selections and I’m stepping out in a day game on Thursday when the Washington Nationals finish up a three game set with the Kansas City Royals at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.

I know Billy Chapel was a fictional character played by Kevin Costner but I feel like that’s what were about to see from Patrick Corbin here.  I do believe this will be Corbin’s final MLB game as he’s in the final season of his contract and the Nationals have no reason to re-sign him.  Corbin is from the Syracuse area and I’ve heard rumors of him building a house on Oneida Lake, his wife is also from here so it sort of lines up timing wise that Corbin would be setting things up to enjoy retirement.  Say what you want about Corbin and his struggles the past few years but this guy showed up every single day of his 6 year contract and was a huge part of bringing home a World Series title in 2019.  Corbin is a mentor to a number of the young pitchers on this Nationals staff (MacKenzie Gore lived with him this past offseason) and by all accounts a great teammate so if this is it (which we obviously don’t know for sure but I’m sure the team does) I expect the Nationals to show up and give their best effort here.  Corbin’s overall numbers are not great but when he’s on he’s still effective. In the last month alone Corbin has turned in quality starts against the Rockies, Yankees and Marlins and had another where he went 5.2 innings and gave up two runs while striking out eight against the Marlins.  The Nationals have been shut out in three straight games which means they have all of their best bullpen arms available (coming off three straight losses) and should be motivated to at least score today.  Corbin will want to finish a stellar career on a high note and I think any respectable effort puts us in a great position to cash against the +1.5 run line here.

Another reason I like the Nationals today is that Kansas City, despite winning back to back games, hasn’t played good ball going on a couple of weeks now.  Even with last night’s win the Royals have scored just 8 runs over their last 7 games which is actually worse than the slumping Nationals (who scored 12 runs in the same span).  Kansas City won the opening game of this series 1-0 in 10 innings and their lone run came from a throwing error that scored the ghost runner from second.  The reason I point this out is the Royals have been considerably worse against left handed pitching this season and have done nothing against southpaws so far in this series.  Mitchell Parker shut out the Royals across five innings on Tuesday while DJ Herz allowed just one run on three hits across five innings yesterday. Normally I’d be concerned backing a third Nationals LHP in a third straight day in the same series but that’s actually an edge here as Kansas City ranks 26th out of 30 MLB teams in wRC+ against southpaws this season.  When Corbin has his good stuff he’s usually good for 5 or 6 innings, if he’s out early we should get the better bullpen arms as Kyle Finnegan, Derek Law and Jose Ferrer all didn’t pitch yesterday. 

I know Michael Wacha is having a really good season but I still can’t justify Wacha being a -175 road favorite in Major League Baseball in 2024.  Kudos to Wacha for turning his career around after it looked like he was cooked from 2019-2021 but I still think he’s been insanely lucky to post the numbers he has this season.  One thing about Wacha that appeals to me here is, while he goes deep into games and doesn’t give up much, he’s rarely perfect.  Wacha will go 6 or 7 innings but he’s almost always giving up something and that “something” could very well be enough here.  Wacha has given up at least two earned runs in 8 of his last 11 starts and some of those have come against dreadful offenses like the Giants, Pirates and White Sox so the Nationals are certainly capable of breaking out of their slump here.  I also think Wacha has earned the right to pitch deep at this point which is great because the Royals will be less likely to go to their bullpen which has been the strength of the team of late.

The Royals “need” to win this game but that doesn’t mean they are going to. The Royals have also been the worst team in Major League Baseball with RISP in September so there’s a good chance if Kansas City does find a way it’s by one run.  Too many reasons to love the Nationals with a run cushion here.  Play on Nationals +1.5 (-113) for 5% (or 5 units)