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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(304627) KIA Tigers at (304628) Hanwha Eagles

Event:
(304627) KIA Tigers at (304628) Hanwha Eagles
Sport/League:
KBO
Date/Time:
September 27, 2024 5AM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-125
Play:
4% – Hanwha Eagles -125
Result:
Win
Analysis

Kia resting a bunch of regulars here.   I like Ryan Weiss and teams “out of it” typically give an effort in their final home series of the season. 

Weiss against Kia’s “B” lineup is a fairly big edge I’ll lay -125 to get involved with that.

Additional Analysis: This is essentially what Freddie and I were talking about on Spaces yesterday as it pertains to KBO home teams the final weekend of the season.  There's 10 teams in KBO and most players spend their entire career with one or two teams so the final weekend for a non-playoff team is usually a chance to say “thank you” to the fans for supporting all season.

That typically comes in the form of inspired play and Hanwha does have something to celebrate as they can secure their highest finish in years (7th) so I expect the Eagles to play hard and play their “A” team here.

That won't be the case for Kia, the Tigers already won the league and are already in the Korean Series so some of their regulars aren't even traveling south for the games against Hanwha and Lotte.  All of these KBO teams uphold the integrity of the game and play to win if up against another playoff team but Hanwha and Lotte are both completely out of the race so zero obligation for Kia to play starters (or even make them travel) here.  

That probably means Kia will have all starters in on Monday in their home finale but here it's reserves and no reason to stress out any bullpen arms so Hanwha will have ample opportunity to put runs on the board in this game.

Kia probably won't, their lineup is going to be far less appealing here than usual and Ryan Weiss has proven to be one of the more capable pitchers in the league since arriving mid-season.  Weiss is someone that failed to make an impact at AAA and never made it to the big leagues but he's been surprisingly great this season joining the club out of the independent circut.

Weiss has a 3.99 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 15 KBO starts, this will be his final start of the season and keeping a sub-4 ERA and a sub-1.20 WHIP is MASSIVE for Weiss stock in the offseason.  I'm sure Weiss would love to stay on with Hanwha (or another KBO team) but also probably pitched his way into one more opportunity in affiliated ball so extremely important he ends on a high note and maintains his season numbers.  

Hanwha didn't play yesterday so the Eagles will have their better bullpen arms here.  This likely closes at a worse number so I'll take a shot with a pitcher I like in Weiss all things considered at this price.
 

Play on Hanwha Eagles -125 for 4% (or 4 units)

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