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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(367) Syracuse at (368) UNLV

Event:
(367) Syracuse at (368) UNLV
Sport/League:
CFB
Date/Time:
October 4, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-110
Play:
4% – Syracuse +3.5 (-110)
Result:
Win
Analysis

I can’t believe I misread the market this badly here.   I still make Syracuse -1 and love them to win this game.  

Will be looking for injury news but as of now it looks like some early steam on UNLV and I expect this to get bet back toward Syracuse. 

If you are seeing this late enjoy a much better number on Syracuse though I think we call cash regardless here. 

Update: I will write this one up tomorrow morning.  I know I'm stuck with a terrible number here but I don't think I'm on the wrong side.  I'm going to wait until I have all the info but as of now this move makes zero sense to me.  I love Syracuse here and think there's a great chance to Orange win this game.

I will put my final thoughts in for this one around 4PM ET.  I still don't see any unknown injuries for Syracuse and this simply looks like a line that got steamed.  Syracuse needs to improve their run defense and has had some issues with offensive line but they looked fine in those areas against Georgia Tech who was their toughest opponent to date.

I'm not fully sold that UNLV is a better team than Georgia Tech, I think the Rebels are off to a fantastic start and have a pair of nice results over Houston and Kansas but neither of those “upsets” have aged particularly well as both Houston and Kansas are now 1-4.  There was a time where UNLV was as low as a PICK last week against Fresno State, I'll give them credit for slamming a decent Bulldogs team but I don't have Fresno State power rated higher than Syracuse so that's a substantial move going from being a -2.5 home favorite in a Mountain West game to a -6.5 home favorite over a better team from a power conference.

I will circle back if I can find anything Syracuse related that would have caused this move.  All things equal I still love Syracuse +6.5 and still think the Orange have a nice chance to win here.

Play on Syracuse +3.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)

***For grading purposes I will have to grade this at the terrible early line I locked in +3.5.  If you are getting in late I think the +6.5 is a great bet and there's nothing to put me off loving Syracuse with the points here***

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