Guardians (1:08PM ET TBS) – Heartbreak city for us on Thursday night in MLB with the Brewers blowing it in the 9th but we bounce back with a nice winner on Syracuse on Friday and it’s on to the Division Series where the Cleveland Guardians take on the Detroit Tigers in Game 1 at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.

I know the Tigers are insanely hot right now and everything is going their way but they simply aren’t a better team than the Guardians.  At some point that’s going to matter, in Houston the Tigers got timely hits and timely outs but they also put themselves in position to lose both of those games and at some point all the breaks aren’t going to fall their way.  I believe that will be the case in this series, Cleveland has been a more complete team than the Astros all season and I can’t see the Tigers being able to ride their bullpen for nine innings on the road to another win.  Detroit’s relievers have a sub-3.00 ERA in the second half, much of which has been accumulated during “bullpen games” but the reality is the Tigers trailed in Game 2 in the 8th inning and won that game in improbable fashion. The Astros have also had shaky high leverage arms all season while the Guardians bullpen has lead the majors in just about every relevant category for all of 2024.  Cleveland’s high leverage bullpen arms (Smith, Gaddis, Clase and Herrin) have combined for a 1.49 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over 290 innings and the Guardians have now added Erik Sabrowski who is someone I had highly rated in my MILB pitcher rankings and has 12.2 scoreless innings since being called up in early September.  It’s far less likely the Tigers get the key hit against this Guardians staff but, like they did in Game 2, will give something up at some point trying to piece nine innings together with the bullpen.  I expect it to be enough for the Guardians to grab Game 1.

Another reason I love Cleveland in this spot is their starting pitcher is also to superior to anything the Tigers can throw out there today.  Tanner Bibee is a star, I had my reservations regarding him entering the season but Bibee has been one of the most consistent starters in the big leagues this year with three straight quality starts and more than three runs conceded just twice since the All-Star break.  Cleveland lead the American League with a 50-31 record at home this season and I don’t think the layoff hurts this pitching oriented Guardians team who now has their full arsenal available and rested here.  Cleveland also won’t need the 5th starter in the playoffs, that’s a role they struggled to fill at times this season due to injuries but knowing they can use Bibee and Ben Lively and then play matchups with Matthew Boyd, Joey Cantillo and Gavin Williams (instead of needing all of those guys as starters) makes this Guardians staff that much stronger. It’s not like Detroit knocked the cover off the ball in the Wild Card round, the Tigers managed to make three second inning runs hold up against the Astors in Game 1 and got a key bases loaded hit while trailing in the 8th in Game 2 a couple of pitches after what probably was strike three.  No guarantees Detroit hits here and I don’t think the Guardians are the team the Tigers are going to outduel in a close game.

Detroit has been on a dream run but this is still a roster comprised of a number of AAAA guys that doesn’t stack up to what the Guardians are working with.  Cleveland is the far superior team and that will be apparent here.  Play on Guardians -140 for 4% (or 4 units)