Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards O/U Over 40.5 (-135)…(5%) SHOP AROUND. good to 42.5

Josh Allen has quite the track record against the Dolphins, putting up massive numbers in his most recent meetings against them, setting us up for a great opportunity to bet a player prop on a receiver I expect to have a huge day. 

Focusing on the passing yard numbers for Josh Allen in his last five games against the Dolphins—359, 320, 352, 304, and 400—it's evident that he has consistently excelled against them.

With that being said, the player we are specifically focussing on for this game is Kahlil Shakir, the WR1 for the Bills. Shakir and Coleman are the two receivers that will be running the show this season for the Bills, but it's where Shakir catches his passes that got my attention. Shakir is more of a slot receiver, he'll be running slants and curls for the most part, catching shorter passes, being a safe but effective option for Josh Allen. Coleman will act as a bit of a deeper threat and a guy that may not see as many targets in this game but could still make some big plays. Shakir ran 26 routes in the slot on Sunday against the Cardinals, catching all three of his targets for 42 yards and a touchdown.  Miami's slot defender, Kader Kohou, ranked bottom-five in catch rate allowed (87.0%), forced incompletion rate (1.8%), and open-target rate (72.2%) in 2023. In his meeting against Miami towards the end of last season, Shakir had 105 receiving yards, six receptions & he had a longest reception of 46 yards. Shakir hasn't dropped any passes in any games he's played against Miami and although he won't be catching long passes, both his volume and ability to work after a catch will help get him over this receiving total. 

As the game approaches, my inclination towards the Miami side grows stronger, leading me to expect that the Bills will be trailing and throwing a substantial number of passes. Considering Josh Allen's tendency to heavily rely on passing when playing against Miami, Kahlil Shakir appears to be the perfect target given the matchups. His high target volume and proficiency in gaining yards after the catch make him an attractive option for this game. 

Overall, all signs point to Kahlil Shakir having a significant impact in this game, and I am thoroughly convinced that he is poised for a standout performance against Miami.