Marco Silva -425 (v Mattheiu Duclos) + Nick Piccininni -315 (v Jack Duffy) Final Price -161

Marco Tulio -425 v Matthieu Duclos

Tulio won on Contender Series last season, but Dana didn’t give him the contract, but going back and watching the fight, Tulio fought a tough guy and it was a really good fight.  Striking was good, he got a crucial takedown in the third that got him the win, and since then he went to LFA for a fight and knocked out Cemey dos Santos in the second round.  I think Dana may have some regrets about not giving him a contract, and this may sound dumb, but Carlos Prates and Oki fought on that episode of Contender Series, and they pulverized their opponents so it was almost impossible to match their level of domination as Tulio and Timmy Cuamba didn’t get contracts that night, and this feels like a nice spot for redemption for Tulio.  I actually like Duclos, he’s exciting, good power, and finishing ability, but he’s only 6-2, and has fought…NOBODY.  His last fight was against a guy who was 5-2, but the fight got stopped early when the ref made a mistake about an eye poke so we didn’t get to see much from him.  This is a massive step up in competition for Duclos, and I think he gets knocked out as he just doesn’t have the experience to compete with Tulio.  Tulio is the real deal, and should be better everywhere, but his striking is going to be the difference.  Tulio by KO in the second is my prediction.

Nick Piccininni -315 v Jack Duffy

Piccininni is the rightful favorite here as all he really has to do is avoid the takedown of Duffy, and he’ll dominate on the feet.  Duffy took several years off from 2019-2023, and he’s won 2 fights since returning, and both wins were because of his takedowns and dominance on the ground, but he’s shown some real weakness in his striking defense, and honestly, his striking offense isn’t that impressive.  He got knocked down several times 2 fights ago against a smaller opponent, and Piccininni will probably be the best striker he’s faced.  If Duffy gets this to the ground, he can control and score points, but that’s not the name of the game at Contender Series.  I can see him trying to strike for a bit against Piccininni, and then when he realizes that it isn’t going well, he’ll shoot for a takedown, but Piccininni will expect it and be ready for it.  I think Piccininni gets the job done, probably by KO.  The other thing in this fight is that I’ve faded guys coming from Urijah Faber’s A1 Combat League, and so far they are 0-2 this season.  I think it goes to 0-3 after this fight.