Mayfield OVER 1.5 TD Passes

There are a few secondaries I’m excited to fade to start the season, and Washington is one of them.  Both PFF and Sharp Football Analysis have them as a bottom 3 secondary to start the year as the team lost a safety and a cornerback, and while they picked up some free agents, and drafted Mike Sainristil in the second round, this unit doesn’t have a lot of talent.  Their first round pick from last year, Emmanuel Forbes, wasn’t great so they’re going to be a work in progress all season and I see them giving up big numbers to opposing quarterbacks.  Last year, 13 quarterbacks threw for over 1.5 TD’s so just blindly playing this last year would have resulted in a 13-4 record, and on the road they gave up over 1.5 TD passes to their last six opponents holding on Josh Allen and Josh Dobbs to under 1.5.

Baker Mayfield was good for this prop as he threw for over 1.5 TD’s in 10 regular season games and both playoff games giving him a 12-7 record on this prop.  The Bucs only rushed for eight total touchdowns last season while throwing for 28 TD’s, and their running back, Rachaad White, caught three TD’s while rushing for only six so he’s not exactly the guy to pound it in from inside the five yard line.  Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin are healthy, I think Baker has a really good game to start his second year with the Bucs, I see over 1.5 TD passes for him.