(5%) SOUTH ALABAMA. Major Applewhite isn't your typical 1st-year coach. He's been a head coach before (Houston) and he's been here with South Alabama as the offensive coordinator for the past three years. While the Jaguars did lose a lot from the team which crushed Eastern Michigan 59-10 in the Bowl, Applewhite's cupboard is far from bare. He's got a lot of young talented offensive players and the QB who led them to the bowl win is back. As for North Texas, the Mean Green lost a QB who threw for more than 3000 yards, a receiver with more than 1000 receiving yards and a running back with more than 1000 rushing yards. That's a lot of offense to replace. However, the bigger problem for North Texas is on the other side of the ball. The Mean Green were terrible defensively last season. They allowed 37.1 points per game (3rd worst in all of FCS) and 476.4 yards per game, the most in all of football. You don't fix those type of problems overnight. By comparison, the Jags allowed just 21 ppg and 313.4 ypg last season. They may not match those numbers this season but they're still going to be a lot better defensively than their guests. I've got the Jags kicking off the “new era” with a double-digit win.  *good at 5% at -7 or better