#1 NFL RECORD SINCE DEC. 2022 + #1 THIS SEASON: Here's your chance to get Ben's entire NFL season, from the start of the season to the end of the Super Bowl, for ONLY $469. saving you $100 at checkout! (Click to Redeem NFL Offer)

Carmine Bianco: Carmine Bianco finishd the NFL #1 last season at +67.9 units, 58%( 83-60-3) ,14.3% ROI and you can get his NFL Week 1 Best Bet for 50% OFF, down to $14.50 using coupon code CARM50! (Click to Redeem coupon code CARM50)

Last Chance: Get a Free Week of Football Action! Until midnight on Tuesday, we're offering a 14-day all-access package for just $198 and throwing in an extra week at no additional cost! That’s 21 days of all-access service to your favorite handicapper or cappers—a $99 value—absolutely free! (Click to Shop Experts)


PLAY: Cleveland Browns (moneyline) RATING (4%) 
ROTATION #480 DATE: September 7, 1:25pm 
LINE: -140 (4%) 

CLEVELAND (ml) - For a team which went 11-6 last season, the Browns aren't being given a whole lot of respect. Yet, they have an elite defense and an offense which is loaded with weapons. Former Cowboy Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy are a talented wide-receiver duo. Tight end David Njoku was dominant down the stretch last season. The Browns are also very tough to beat at home. Some don't necessarily believe in Cleveland because of uncertainty about quarterback Deshaun Watson. Others would point to the fact that running back Nick Chubb is out to start the season. However, I'm expecting a solid showing from Watson and I think the running game will still be fine without Chubb. 

I do recognize that Chubb is a special back. However, since long before it was popular to think that way, I've always felt that the offensive line is what makes a good ground game. That said, the Browns should have one of the best offensive lines in the league. They're experienced and deep and will effectively open up holes for Cleveland's "running back by committee" approach. Jerome Ford, who ran for more than 800 yards last season, will serve as the lead back. D'onta Foreman will fill the short-yardage role that Kareem Hunt previously had. They're both entirely capable backs. 

As for Watson, I like this matchup for him, as he figures to be facing the Dallas secondary at the right time. The Cowboys do get Trevon Diggs back but Stephon Gilmore, a former NFL Defensive Player Of The Year, has moved on after starting all 17 games last season. Much worse, DaRon Bland, who led the NFL with nine interceptions last season, is out with injury. That means rookie Caelen Carson, a 5th round pick out of Wake Forest, is thrust into a prominent role sooner than Dallas would have liked. Though much has obviously changed, including his team, I feel it's still worth noting that Watson was 33 of 45 for 375 yards in his lone career start vs. the Cowboys, a 19-16 win when he was with Houston. (Prescott really struggled that day, as he threw for 208 yards with two interceptions and a 66.5 QB rating. 

The Cowboys have had to deal with contract negotiations for Lamb and Prescott during the offseason. They got Lamb signed but not Prescott, as I write this. He doesn't necessarily need an extension to play well but I still don't think the distractions are a good thing. Last year's Cowboys were dominant (8-0) at Dallas but ordinary (4-5) on the road. The same was true of the Browns. They were 8-1 at home but 3-5 on the road. I expect homefield to prove significant and the Browns to come away with the win. *reduce to 3% if the line is higher than -150.