915 Baltimore at NY Yankees

Dean Kramer takes the mound for the Birds, and we know what to expect from the veteran righty. He has faced the Yankees twice this season with mixed results. Allowing four earned runs in 11.2 innings. He’s in the 80th percentile in average exit velocity, and 77th percentile in hard hit rate. Kramer has pitched better on the road this season, and is looking to bounce back from allowing four earned runs in six innings last time out against the Giants. 

He is opposed by Clarke Schmidt and his 2.37 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. His xERA is 3.81, so he is due for some negative regression. You are also buying high on the Yanks here, as he has three starts since coming off the IL. In those games he has permitted just three earned runs in 15.1 innings of work. 

The Yankees should be the favorite here, but not by this margin. The Orioles are a quality team that has the ability to win on any night. This line is too high to ignore.

PLAY BALTIMORE

Good to +122

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