4% Arizona (10:30 ET): Upgrading this to a 4% BEST BET as it’s the biggest discrepancy between MY line and the oddsmakers for Saturday. Right now, I have New Mexico rated as the second worst team in all of FBS, ahead of only newbie Kennesaw State. Last week, the Lobos closed as two-touchdown underdogs AT HOME to a FCS opponent (Montana State). They ended up covering the number, but lost 35-31 after blowing a 17-point 4Q lead. Truth be told, New Mexico was extremely fortunate to be winning by that margin as they benefited from TWO defensive TDs. They were outgained in the contest 567-324! 

Both these teams have 1st year head coaches. Bronco Mendenhall takes over in Albuquerque trying to resurrect a UNM program that has not had a winning season since 2016! The fact that the Lobos were DD dogs at home to a FCS opponent in their first game is an ominous sign from the oddsmakers. You may think that having a game under their belt gives UNM an edge here, but actually the opposite is true as teams making their season debut have covered 64% of the time since 2005 when facing a non-FCS opponent that played in Week “0.” There’s no “lookahead” here for Arizona, who faces an FCS opponent of their own (Northern Arizona) next week and the coaching staff has had a week to salivate over facing a New Mexico D that just gave up 362 yards rushing to Montana State. 

Now I know Arizona’s “bread and butter” last season was not necessarily running the ball, but 1st year HC Brent Brennan is still going to want to make a “statement” that there’s going to be no “drop off” this year in Tucson. The Wildcats jumped to 10-3 SU/11-2 ATS last season, leading to Jedd Fisch getting the Washington job. But QB Noah Fifita and WR McMillian (1402 yards) are both still here as are seven starters from LY’s defense (including the top five tacklers). I may very well look to fade ‘Zona once they get into the teeth of the Big 12 schedule, but this situation SCREAMS blowout as New Mexico’s L3 games as a dog of 30+ have seen them go 0-3 ATS and lose by an average of 38 PPG. 4% Arizona (Play to -34.5)