3% Brentford (10:00 AM ET): Heading into matchweek three in the English Premier League, Southampton are one of five sides with zero points. Truth be told, the Saints have given their supporters little to cheer about through the first two matches. A 1-0 loss at home to Newcastle United doesn’t look all that terrible on the surface, until you realize Southampton were up a man for the majority of the match (due to a bogus red card) and still couldn’t break through. Last week, the Saints again deserved the 1-0 loss, this time to Nottingham Forest (who dominated the xG battle 2.86 to 0.21). 

Life back in the English top flight gets no easier this week with a visit to London to face an always pesky Brentford side. The Bees were very impressive in defeating Crystal Palace 3-1 in the opener, but then fell 2-0 to Liverpool last week. The future status of Ivan Toney remains in limbo, however even without him I feel that Brentford is destined to be a solid mid-table side in 2024/25. This is a fixture where the Bees certainly will want max points. Having outscored Southampton 8-0 on aggregate the past three meetings, history is with the home side here. Speaking of that, Brentford has won seven straight at home against freshly promoted sides! 

Truth be told, on paper, Southampton looked like the weakest side in the entire EPL coming into the season. Ipswich Town may be the favorite to get relegated while Leicester City faces a possible point deduction. But the Saints have yet to score in two matches and worth nothing Opta had them projected for last. They needed to win the Championship Playoff just to gain promotion. It was not easy midweek in the EFL Cup either as they conceded three times against Cardiff City. While Southampton still ended up winning 5-3, that’s misleading considering the difference ended up being two stoppage time goals. Brentford won their EFL Cup match 1-0, not exactly impressive either, but they dominated possession (72.1%). Speaking of that metric, last week Southampton was outshot 23-8 despite controlling 65% of the possession. Not good! 3% Brentford (Play to -160)