3% UTSA (3:30 ET): Kennesaw State becomes the 134th program to join the FBS ranks and I've got them rated as the worst team in the country coming into 2024. It just seems like an inopportune time for the Owls to make the move. They went 0-6 SU last year vs. FCS opponents. Their three wins were against two D-II schools (Tusculum, Virginia-Lynchburg) and one NAIA opponent (Lincoln)! Yes, they redshirted a lot of guys, but this team figures to struggle MIGHTILY taking on the “big boys.” 

The line is predictably high here, but justifiably so. UTSA is one of the better Group of 5 programs, having won 9+ games each of the L3 seasons. Despite losing QB Frank Harris, the Roadrunners come into 2024 as co-favorites to win the AAC. New QB Owen McCown looked good in the bowl win and I'm confident in him carving up this Kennesaw State defense. Under HC Jeff Traylor, the team has won 23 of 26 home games. The last time Kennesaw State faced a team this good was 2022 when they lost 63-10 to Cincinnati. 

Kennesaw State is an option team, so it might seem scary laying this many points. But UTSA has a really good defense and Kennesaw struggled to even gain 4.0 YPC against FCS teams last season. Expect the favorite to absolutely dominate this game in the trenches and thus they can pretty much “name the score.” This is a case of simply trusting my numbers as I'm still showing value, even after the Roadrunners have taken money all summer long. 3% UTSA (Play to -27.5)