4% Over Royals/Astros (2:10 ET): Back when these teams met in April, the Royals swept the Astros. But as we all know, Houston has been a much better ballclub since then and it’s been a very different story with KC this go-around. That April series was also in Kauffman Stadium - where the Royals tend to play much better baseball. This weekend in H-town has been all ‘Stros, who have taken the first three games and now they look to sweep Sunday afternoon. I’ve written many times before about the Royals’ offensive struggles on the road and that’s come home to roost these last three games with a total of just seven runs scored. 

However, I do believe the KC lineup has a chance for a surge in production Sunday. This may seem counterintuitive with Ronel Blanco on the mound for the Astros as Blanco is 11th in both ERA (3.14) and WHIP (1.08). That being said, Blanco is not only winless over his last eight starts, but he has a 4.69 ERA over that same stretch. Getting into some of the more “advanced” stats, Blanco has a 4.34 FIP and a .216 BABIP, the latter being VERY fortunate. Blanco also tends to walk a lot of batters (3.6 per start). Therefore, while their production does dip away from Kauffman Stadium and they’ve never faced Blanco before, the Royals (who are batting .277 and averaging 5.6 rpg since the All-Star Break) should put up a decent number today. Also, the Astros’ bullpen has been shaky of late, including failing to protect leads both Thursday and Friday. 

The way I see it, the Royals’ biggest problem in this game is going to be playing “keep up” with the Astros’ bats, which get to face Alec Marsh. It’s been nearly two months since we saw him get through a full six innings and he has a 4.67 ERA in that stretch. The home run ball has been a problem for Marsh, who missed much of August while on the IL. Behind him is a bullpen that has been bad ever since May. Royals’ relievers now have the sixth worst ERA in all of baseball. Houston averages 4.7 rpg at home and eclipse that number this afternoon. 4% Over Royals/Astros (Play to 9)