3% Atlanta (7:10 ET): The Braves are 7-5 head to head with the Phillies this season. That record may surprise some given the latter’s six-game edge in the NL East standings. But after taking two of three games each of the first three series vs. the Phillies this season, the Braves can do no better than a four-game split in Philly this weekend after being shut out on Saturday, 3-0. The Braves lineup simply had no answers when it came to facing Zach Wheeler yesterday. Wheeler went seven innings, walked none and allowed just four hits. The final score would have been worse had it not been for incredible catch by CF Michael Harris II in the 7th. 

The major reason why we’ve seen a 19-game swing (relative to LY) in the division is the Braves’ offensive production falling off. Now they are still 4th in home runs, but if the current pace continues, it’ll be about 250 fewer total runs scored compared to 2023. That’s a huge difference, although it should be pointed out this lineup was historically great last season. I realize that I’ve yet to really make a compelling case for betting the Braves tonight, but enter Spencer Schwellenbach, who had an outstanding August with just 10 runs allowed in 5 starts. The Braves also have the bullpen advantage in this game.

The last time Schwellenbach faced the Phils, he went 6 ⅔ innings and allowed only two runs on three hits. He also finished with nine strikeouts. It was Schwellenbach’s second quality start in as many outings vs. Philadelphia and the Braves have won them both. Now Aaron Nola is on the mound for the Phillies tonight. The team is 2-0 his L2 starts against Atlanta, however the difference is that Nola was rocked by the Braves in a start here at home back in March, allowing seven runs in 11 hits. There are some other concerns with Nola heading into tonight’s game, namely a decreasing strikeout rate and the fact he’s allowed 6+ hits in 7 of his last 8 starts. At an underdog price, I like the Braves tonight. 3% Atlanta (Play to +105)