3% Under LSU/USC (8:00 ET): We are going contrarian and punching back at the market in this one. Certainly, very few will want to bet the Under in Sunday night’s Top 25 showdown (which takes place in Las Vegas). LSU and USC combined to go 22-4 to the Over last season. The former’s games averaged 73.5 PPG while the latter was at 76.2 PPG! But both “blue bloods” are having to replace former Heisman Trophy winners at QB and have improved defenses coming into 2024. Plus it’s the first game of the season. I’ve got no choice but to go with the Under here as this total is out of control. 

This morning on the “Power 5,” I made the case that USC is the right side in this game and I (clearly) still believe that. Miller Moss was the starting QB for the Holiday Bowl last December (I backed USC in that game) and he was incredible throwing for SIX touchdowns! However, I would not expect anything close to that level of performance tonight. Keep in mind that Louisville (USC’s Holiday Bowl opponent) had no tape on Moss. Brian Kelly and the LSU coaching staff have had an entire offseason to prepare for him. The new DC in Baton Rouge is Blake Baker, who had success at Missouri the L2 years and is now CFB’s highest paid assistant.

Speaking of new DC’s, USC hired D’Anton Lynn away from rival UCLA after he led the Bruins to a Top 15 finish in scoring defense (19.3 PPG allowed) last season. I think many will be surprised by how improved BOTH of these defenses are going to look tonight. While Moss has to replace #1 NFL DC Caleb Williams, it will be Garrett Nussmeier replacing LY’s Heisman Winner (Jayden Daniels) at LSU. Nussmeier has experience but not a very high ceiling, IMO. With this O/U passing through the key number of 65, I simply HAD to get involved here. Let’s cross our fingers and hope for not many explosive plays tonight in Vegas! 3% Under LSU/USC (Play to 65.5)